Fukushima Update: Japan's Last Days and Economic Impact

Hello good morning it's the 19th of March, and I wanted to give you a short update on the situation in Japan and the potential economic and social impact. Now let me stay very frankly because there was a desperate call in YouTube from someone in Tokyo for information that may be very frank and clear on what is happening there. On last Friday, 1953, my time I gave it a 90% chance that the thing is going to blow up. I lowered the forecast during the day because I saw the Japanese government and said they're going to bring general rate of them to deal with the situation and I thought they might have a chance to do it. And there's a certain pattern in crisis situation in this answer situation, which is people having time to deal with this situation. This is definitely there's an idle time when the Titanic hits the iceberg. The captain can take some measures to a certain period of time to prevent the burst and in this case they didn't use that idle time correctly. To my opinion, I think Japan has very weak leadership, where we understand the leadership and they're not taking the right action. So what you should ask yourself to get more information or more indication what is happening there and I'm coming to that in a second but ask yourself before them questions. Where are the 5000 employees from the Fukujima won't plant? They are there because they have left the plant basically decided from the troops, from the job, in war-like situation. Ask yourself where are the families of the type of managers and the government? Ask this to your government and then you will know how dangerous the situation is. And ask yourself the question, what did the government do to prevent the situation? If they do it successful or not and are they always informed and do they contact the right people to understand what they're happening there and taking the right actions? And I put a bit big question mark, I put doubt on all of those questions for my perspective. There's a very bad leadership there. It's a sunshine leadership. It's not a leadership which is used to deal with disasters and bad situations and making decisions which are important to make at that point of time. This is the largest power plant in the world according to my knowledge or one of the largest and you had one reactor after the other blowing up. The decisions which led to this disaster step by step were bad and hindsight that's easy to say but learning from 3 mile island it was very clear you shouldn't never allow hydrogen to build up in a containment vessel to a situation like that you should allow it to go outside the radiation taking radiation upfront radiation into account what have been the better decision because when the reactors blow up or the outside containment blows up then it's very difficult to get people there and to take action and having a control crew there. So now after you have a massive destruction at that site it's really difficult to control anything more and the Japanese government now had to admit one week later that most likely a coordinating is happening there. A coordinating already occurred on Saturday last week when the first reactor blow up blew up hydrogen explosions, iron consequence of co-meltings, partial co-meltings at least and so I think that was already an indication of bad the situation was everything else is just to desperate activity. It's not action. It's not directed. It's not anything which is helpful from my perspective. If you don't know where the damage is and what the situation is it's very difficult to take the right actions. Remember when you are in a submarine or an abode and you hit, get hit. Then the first thing the captain will do is to ask everybody for information for the damage you need to understand what's going on you see that in all the action movies people sacrificing their life to just understand their their damages and while situation is very similar they don't know anything they don't know anything about the reactor follow their massive amounts of uranium rods where start. So we have very bad leadership, very bad management of the situation so I don't give it positive switch here that's what the government tries to do by just giving positive news and showing pizza shows on the TV and making people feel comfortable and talk you but as Mark Fever said it, when a comrade in the course all bads are off. Now what does it mean? It means the Japanese island is lost, talk you is lost, the economy is lost and let me get to details because many people will say I am an alarmist and somebody is only looking to the negative in this case was wrong this was going to have was right with this what was going to happen and might be wrong in the complete scale but comparing it to Chernobyl there are 600,000 troops sent in by courageous general to deal with the situation and the fire workers who put out the fire in Chernobyl they all sacrificed themselves it happens in it so far yet here there are small attempts to do it but they ask yourself there are the 5000 employees who dedicated their life to a broken nuclear power stations where they know they are not standing by their engines and troops and the comrade and trying to deal with what is left to deal with. Now we see the tsunami hit Japan the earthquake hit Japan massive destruction, massive disruptions and that means the foot supplies disrupted the foot supplies now also poison to this radio activity the rice fields so this is one of the challenges the radiation also you know case the chips the electronic parts the electronic components you might be quietly be tried in Chernobyl to act this robots to bring robots into to deal with the situation there I didn't work because the chips and the electronic parts were breaking down faster than people and so that's something to learn so Japan as the center of the chip industry is certainly not going to maintain its capabilities especially if Tokyo said by the radio to fall out and it's certainly going to hit you in the next weeks and then we have a big problem one of the biggest problem the government now admits is that there might be services obtained nuclear chainway actions when the cause are melting that's something you've discussed scientifically here we are not sure to what extent that is going to happen there's a chance that this is going to happen and if it's going to happen then ever it's it's they're going to be the worst nuclear disaster in the world the J6 seeding the the lever really has already now I don't think the the in a scarler which they're putting out there is it's correct I think they should have all put it to several eight or maybe if there's an eight at all it's certainly for my perspective worse than Chernobyl and dealing with it is going to be more complex because we are in the democracy situation here and you cannot so easily command people in there to sacrifice themselves especially this seems to have failed for my perspective you should ask yourself what the government used that either time for the didn't even manage to bring generators in I think what they managed was just getting friends at family out of the country I think you should really question that I wonder if that was what happened that they dedicated the time to to me it looks like it's it's very easy from here of course to talk negatively about those leaders but for my perspective they haven't done anything good yet and right that's something in crisis situation it's very difficult of course to handle it but what I take from the media and the news the government has failed to take responsibility to take the command the chain of command and getting the managers out of the way and just acting decisively now what should the government have done they should have evacuated or pregnant women from Japan they should have evacuated or starts to evacuate the children they haven't done that of course it's very difficult it was all the disruption the capabilities they have and the money which is required but given the chances that radio activities is very bad for children and and born I think you sacrifice in all generations here so that makes it very difficult for the Japanese culture to maintain in the future if that island ever has to be evacuated or if people decide to stay in there and getting exposed to high levels of radiation and all from a human perspective there's a distribution curve some people survive better than others there's always the potential for a few to survive that massive radioactive fallout you've seen that insurmable with telegradators some of them are still alive many of them are dead that many of them died from the consequences many of them immediately and that of course makes it very difficult to handle that kind of disaster if you don't have the right attitude to go in there I can't understand that completely and I think it's very difficult now for the economy it's very difficult to get up to and sustain people will have the minds somewhere else people will be affected by the radio activity that will be affected by the fallout that will be affected by the tsunami follow up and the earthquake follow up consequences that will be affected by the missing energy that will be affected by supplies that will be affected by changes in the supply chain there will be affected by the consequences in the chip on the chips on the electronic parts which you need to manufacture on the robots and there will be of course affected by all the experts and experts which left the count we already and are not there anymore so there's a lot of things each catastrophe is always a chain of reactions which has to take place to make the catastrophe complete and I think the only way to support Japan is not to show it but my tens of stocks there just isn't from an ethical point of view but they have to deal with this situation to avoid the global consequences which are there and the French government and the French nuclear power companies already sent a couple of thousands of gloves and masks and suits there just there's an indication to the government what has been required here it's not only 50 people or hundred or five hundred who has to deal have to deal with that situation you need thousands and you need to contain it somehow if a coordinating is happening this is becoming even more difficult but in a certain way they have to make their mind up on how to deal best with the broadcast scenario and I haven't seen that communicated in the media so far now that's it that's put everything into perspective the situation is the worst we could expect that's what I take from that from the news and the communication and the scientific discussions and it is certainly going to have a global impact for my perspective Japan is going to vanish from the economic landscape over the next years it's just this question of speed it's not a question at all on how long it's just a question of speed and I think if you're accumulating a curse it's going to happen more fast than people might anticipate and I think that's a very dangerous situation now that's it for today we should go to luck and if you have any question that would be pleased to discuss it here thanks and see you soon