Nexus - 1902 - New Times Magazine-pages

Page Content (OCR)

the Electromagnetic Pulse Commission and the Federal manufacturing capacity is roughly 100 EHV transformers Emergency Management Agency, and reviewed in depth per year when the world's manufacturing centres are by the Oak Ridge National Laboratory and the National —_ functioning properly, you can begin to grasp the serious Academy of Sciences, Metatech Corporation undertook — implications of this situation. extensive modelling and analysis of the potential effects It turns out that the EHV transformers in combination of extreme geomagnetic storms upon the US electrical with the hundreds of thousands of miles of high-voltage power grid. Metatech based its modelling on a storm power lines, which act as giant antennas for capturing approximately 10 times stronger than the 1989 Hydro- | EMP- and GMD-induced current and voltage effects, are Québec event, roughly equivalent to the May 1921 especially vulnerable to large geomagnetic extreme GMD.’ Metatech disturbances. The loss o showed how a GMD of this housands of EHV transformers magnitude would induce The loss of thousands of worldwide will cause a massive current and voltage catastrophic collapse of the spikes into thousands of miles EHV transformers grid, stretching across much o of antenna-like power lines that ° ° he industrialised world. It wil interconnect the US electric worldwide will cause a ake years at best for the power _ grid. Metatech catastrophic collapse of the industrialised world to put itsel estimated that within the . . back together after such an continental United States grid, stretching across much event, especially considering alone, these voltage and of the industrialised world. he fact that most of the current spikes combined with manufacturing centres tha induced harmonic anomalies make this equipment will also would severely damage or destroy be grappling with widespread over 350 extra-high-voltage (EHV) power transformers — grid failure. Since the Earth's magnetic field tends to critical to the functioning of the US grid and possibly protect the tropical latitudes from the most damaging well over 2,000 EHV transformers worldwide. geomagnetic effects, with protection dropping as one EHV transformers are custom designed for each _ travels closer to the poles, perhaps the infrastructure installation and are made to order, weighing as muchas and manufacturing zones in places like Mexico, 300 tonnes and costing well over USS1 million each. Malaysia, India and Singapore will be spared, but most Given that there is currently a three-year waiting list for of those countries probably also rely on goods and a single EHV transformer (due to increased demand _ services imported from other parts of the world that will from China and India, the lead times have grown from __ be crippled for many months (or years) in the event of one to three years) and that the total globa an extreme GMD. According to the various Metatech analyses, it is estimated that grid collapse will affect at least 130 en —Asewal Giecme Grangy Usege 0 million people in the United States alone. However, in a ____ a7 “ a recent personal conversation, John Kappenman, a author of the Metatech study, admitted that this j estimate is probably grossly optimistic. He noted that mit "killer trees" and other seemingly insignificant events » | have been attributed to being the tiny seeds that ot sprouted into gigantic multi-state blackouts. The z massive Western States Blackout of 10 August 1996 apparently started when sagging power lines shorted al against improperly pruned trees in Oregon during a : >I, triple-digit heat wave, cutting power to seven western SS = ee eC states and parts of Baja, Mexico, and two Canadian provinces. Due to excessive loads from millions of air- Growth of the US High Voltage Transmission Network and conditioning units operating during the heat wave, the the Annual Electric Energy Usage over the Past 50 Years. In grid had been operating near peak capacity and the addition to increasing total network size, the network has d lines threw it over the edge into cascadin grown in complexity with the introduction of higher-kilovolt- 6 jorte A ways 8 ng ailure, affecting millions of customers.’ Again, rated lines that subsequently also tend to carry larger GIC . ae . (geomagnetically induced current) flows. (Grid size derived improperly pruned "killer trees" were apparently the root from data in the EHV Transmission Line Reference Book and the Cause of the 14 August 2003 Great Northeastern NERC Electricity Supply and Demand database; energy usage Blackout that cut power to over 50 million people.’ statistics from the US Department of Energy - Energy Kappenman also cited the 8-9 September 2011 event Information Administration.)° where a utility technician flipped a switch to bypass a § 7s 3 es 5 is00 B vee Year grid, stretching across much of the industrialised world. 009 = = 190 syn —Arausal Eloctne Energy Usage aid Se High Vonage Tranaminsion Line Miles wn 1 : i mf ' wi 3 me i . LJ a } ; ~ 1 : Setar Cycles 19 20 21 2 23 , ° 1950 ©1955 1980 1985S N87S tates t880 18S (2000 Year Growth of the US High Voltage Transmission Network and the Annual Electric Energy Usage over the Past 50 Years. In addition to increasing total network size, the network has grown in complexity with the introduction of higher-kilovolt- rated lines that subsequently also tend to carry larger GIC (geomagnetically induced current) flows. (Grid size derived from data in the EHV Transmission Line Reference Book and the NERC Electricity Supply and Demand database; energy usage statistics from the US Department of Energy - Energy Information Administration.)° NEXUS ¢ 23 The loss of thousands of EHV transformers worldwide will cause a catastrophic collapse of the FEBRUARY - MARCH 2012 www.nexusmagazine.com