Nexus - 1605 - New Times Magazine-pages

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which "has suffered a series of humiliating defeats in notes: "Most of the pressing transnational problems— referendums, when plans for ‘ever closer union’ have _ including climate change, regulation of globalized been referred to the voters". He went on to say: "In financial markets, migration, failing states, crime general, the Union has progressed fastest when far- _ networks, etc.—are unlikely to be effectively resolved by reaching deals have been agreed by technocrats and _ the actions of individual nation-states. The need for politicians—and then pushed through without direct effective global governance will increase faster than reference to the voters. International governance tends existing mechanisms can respond."* to be effective, only when it is anti-democratic." The report discusses the topic of regionalism, stating: (Emphasis added.) "Greater Asian integration, if it occurs, could fill the In November 2008, the US National Intelligence vacuum left by a weakening multilaterally based Council (NIC), the US intelligence community's "center international order but could also further undermine or mid-term and long-term strategic thinking", released that order. In the aftermath of the 1997 Asian financial a report™ that it produced in collaboration with crisis, a remarkable series of pan-Asian ventures—the numerous think-tanks, consulting firms, academic most significant being ASEAN + 3—began to take root. institutions and hundreds of other experts, among them Although few would argue that an Asian counterpart to he Atlantic Council of the United States, the Wilson the EU is a likely outcome even by 2025, if 1997 is taken Center, the RAND Corporation, the Brookings as a starting point, Asia arguably has evolved more nstitution, the American Enterprise Institute, Texas rapidly over the last decade than the European A&M University, the Council on Foreign Relations and __ integration did in its first decade(s)."_ It further states Chatham House in London. The report, titled "Global that "movement over the next 15 years toward an Asian Trends 2025: A Transformed basket of currencies—if not an World", outlines the curren Asian currency unit as a third global political and economic "Mi. f th 9 reserve—is more than a rends that the world may be ost of the pressing theoretical possibility". It In tennis ofthe financial crsig, | ansnational problems... Ferrer would have elobal it states that solving this "wil are unlikely to be implications, possibly sparking require long-term efforts to . or reinforcing a trend toward establish a new internationa effectively resolved by three trade and financial system". It suggests that as the actions of individual clusters that could become quasi-blocs (North America, Europe, and East Asia)". These increasingly attractive, there blocs "would have implications may be a decline in for the ability to achieve future democratisation for emerging economies, "under- global World Trade Organization agreements and performing authoritarian regimes" and “weak _ regional clusters could compete in the setting of trans- democracies frustrated by years of economic — regional product standards for IT, biotech, nanotech, underperformance”. Further, the dollar will cease to be __ intellectual property rights, and other 'new economy' the global reserve currency, as there will likely be a — products".” "move away from the dollar". Of great importance to address, and reflecting similar It states that the dollar will become "something of a | assumptions made by Rachman in his article advocating first among equals in a basket of currencies by 2025" _ for a world government, is the topic of democratisation. and that "[t]his could occur suddenly in the wake of a‘ The report says that "advances are likely to slow and crisis, or gradually with global rebalancing."” The report globalization will subject many recently democratized elaborates on the construction of a new international countries to increasing social and economic pressures system, stating: "By 2025, nation-states will no longer that could undermine liberal institutions”. This is be the only—and often not the most important—actors largely because "the better economic performance of on the world stage and the ‘international system’ will many authoritarian governments could sow doubts have morphed to accommodate the new reality. But the | among some about democracy as the best form of transformation will be incomplete and uneven.” Further, | government". The report's authors state: "The surveys "we are unlikely to see an overarching, comprehensive, | we consulted indicated that many East Asians put unitary approach to global governance. Current trends greater emphasis on good management, including suggest that global governance in 2025 will be a increasing standards of livings [sic], than democracy." patchwork of overlapping, often ad hoc and fragmented Further, the report says that "even in many well- efforts, with shifting coalitions of member nations, established democracies, surveys show growing international organizations, social movements, NGOs, = philanthropic foundations, and companies." It also Continued on page 79 the "China model" for development becomes nation-states." "Most of the pressing transnational problems... are unlikely to be It effectively resolved by the actions of individual 22 ¢ NEXUS nation-states." Continued on page 79 www.nexusmagazine.com AUGUST — SEPTEMBER 2009