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And Mexico is neither the first nor the last station in he pandemics prognostics train of thought. So far, the reasoning behind the pandemic prognostics has been ridiculously poor. Scientists have been desperately trying to connect the causal agent of he "Spanish flu" pandemic, which back in 1918-20 illed 50 to 100 million people, with present strains of viruses. Two researchers, Taubenberger and Tumpey, attempted to connect the 1918-20 virus with avian flu virus strains based solely on a permafrost sample.’ A oose scientific connection created a very real tsunami of fear that swept through the world and crippled reason. The connection between the Spanish flu universal tragedy and novel epidemics is not novel at all. Furthermore, they have systematically failed. So, one should ask: why is it that failed prognostics and unsuccessful policies are consistently maintained and reproduced as if they proved themselves in any conceivable way? killed 50 to 100 million people, with present strains of | Tamiflu as a panacaea viruses. Two researchers, Taubenberger and Tumpey, Next, bird flu begets Tamiflu® (oseltamivir attempted to connect the 1918-20 virus with avian flu phosphate), the commercially highly successful drug. virus strains based solely on a permafrost sample. A And now, swine flu is being treated with Tamiflu, which loose scientific connection created a very real tsunami _— earns billions of dollars in profits for Roche, the of fear that swept through the world and crippled pharmaceutical giant that manufactures and markets reason. The connection between the Spanish flu he drug. But Roche is not the only company that universal tragedy and novel epidemics is not novel a benefits from Tamiflu's sales going up. The drug's rights all. are owned by Gilead. Former US Secretary of Defense In 1976, 13 cases of swine flu appeared among For Donald Rumsfeld served as Gilead's chairman, and he Dix recruits. One case was deadly. The then US _ remained a substantial Gilead stakeholder even after he President, Gerald Ford, perceived these swine flu cases _—_ joined the Bush administration in 2001.’ o be an imminent national health threat that had to be It is surely not a crime to make some extra million andled immediately at all bucks from a drug that saves costs. A mass vaccination the Earth from monster viruses. program was __ initiated, The only problem is that The only problem is that while ambitious enough to target all . . Tamiflu. may be a _ huge he US populace, but it was so while Tamiflu may bea commercial success, this does incompetent that it had to be : not necessarily make it a alted 11 months after it began. huge commercial SUCCESS, successful treatment against flu About one third of the US this does not necessarily viruses. lati i h . Back in 2005, US Health emergencyvaccine make it a successful suman Services Secretary Mike This jaccine that was treatment against a reat was commenting on supposed to protect the people . Tamiflu's effectiveness against rom a possible health risk from range of flu VIruSes. bird flu: "Tamiflu is effective, or at least partially effective. We don't know how effective it is swine flu was possibly associated with a very tangible and undesirable health threat. A few weeks after the against the virus." vaccination program commenced, the incidence of Some reports from health experts actually treating Guillain-Barré syndrome rose sharply among those who bird flu patients with Tamiflu were rather discouraging. were vaccinated.* Guillain-Barré is an acute Despite the considerations about Tamiflu's inflammatory demyelinating polyneuropathy, an _ effectiveness in dealing with bird flu, now we are using autoimmune disease that involves a misfiring of the Tamiflu to deal with swine flu as if the drug were some immune system in response to foreign antigens. The ind of anti-flu panacaea. relationship between vaccines and the quality of immune response that is mounted is still in question. Drug-resistant viruses The reasoning behind such imprudent and rushed It gets worse. Dr Anne Moscona, a professor of reactions over the 1976 swine flu cases was once again _ paediatrics, microbiology and immunology, has been the possible connection between the presumed 1918-20 warning us since 2005 about viral strains mutating and killer virus and the swine flu strains of viruses. And evading the drugs that target them—a phenomenon once again the prognosis was unsubstantiated and nown as drug resistance:!' caused much more harm than good. The same "This scenario, however, is potentially dangerous. connection is being attempted with the current swine Misuse of the drug [Tamiflu] could rob us of the flu situation. advantages that neuraminidase inhibitors provide, by The 1918-20 pandemic was without doubt a disaster. avoring the emergence of oseltamivir-resistant The word "disaster" literally means "bad star" in Greek. influenza virus... And it is no coincidence, because everything that may "It is therefore worrisome that personal stockpiling of resemble the 1918-20 "bad star" is instantly equated oseltamivir is likely to lead to the use of insufficient with pandemics. Pandemic predictions are like doses or inadequate courses of therapy. Shortages astrological predictions. during a pandemic would inspire sharing of personal costs. The only problem is that while Tamiflu may be a huge commercial success, this does not necessarily make it a successful treatment against a range of flu viruses. Drug-resistant viruses It gets worse. Dr Anne Moscona, a professor of paediatrics, microbiology and immunology, has been warning us since 2005 about viral strains mutating and evading the drugs that target them—a phenomenon known as drug resistance:"! "This scenario, however, is potentially dangerous. Misuse of the drug [Tamiflu] could rob us of the advantages that neuraminidase inhibitors provide, by favoring the emergence of oseltamivir-resistant influenza virus... "It is therefore worrisome that personal stockpiling of oseltamivir is likely to lead to the use of insufficient doses or inadequate courses of therapy. Shortages during a pandemic would inspire sharing of personal 12 ¢ NEXUS www.nexusmagazine.com AUGUST — SEPTEMBER 2009