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to perform one complete circuit. ture Researchers believe the turning of the belt controls the sunspot cycle, 24 and that's why the slowdown is important. "Normally, the conveyor belt moves about one metre per second—walking pace," said NASA 1 solar physicist David Hathaway. & "That's how it has been since the late 19th century." In recent years, however, the belt - ~ has decelerated to 0.75 m/s in the 2020 north and 0.35 m/s in the south. "We've never seen speeds so low," Hathaway added. According to theory and observation, the speed of the belt foretells the intensity of sunspot activity approximately 20 years into the future. A slow belt means lower solar activity; a fast belt means stronger activity. "The slowdown we see now means that Solar Cycle 25, peaking around the year 2022, could be one of the weakest in centuries,” said Hathaway. 260 200 150 100 o 18 Sunspot Cycles: Past and Future 1 19 21. «22 24 20 23 24 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 Every 10-11 years, the number of sunspots found on According to theory and observation, the speed of our closest star rises from zero (as it was in 2008) toa the belt foretells the intensity of sunspot activity high of over four hundred. While the sunspots approximately 20 years into the future. A slow belt themselves don't affect Earth, the solar flares and means lower solar activity; a fast belt means stronger other disturbances emanating from our Sun during __ activity. increased sunspot activity result in an increased "The slowdown we see now means that Solar Cycle number of particles (electrons and protons) and 25, peaking around the year 2022, could be one of the harmful light radiation (ultraviolet rays and X-rays), | weakest in centuries," said Hathaway. known as solar wind. If it weren't for the Earth's protective magnetic field and atmosphere, this Solar Activity's Impact on Earth bombardment of particles The first instruments to would burn us to a crisp. measure solar flare activity to peak sound 2013, could be | NASA is now sounding an ff rire aco. ‘They showed thet Oe. hail 36 sper (aac 3 .nearest Sr treats the cent stronger than the last one American continent Is so eclipses. Sunspots, solar and begin as much as a year close to the north magnetic flares, faculae and other late, according to phenomena affect everything breakthrough forecast using a pole and is the most on the Earth from atmospheric computer model of solar | — yylnerable to solar activity. J cvents to human behaviour. dynamics developed by These phenomena are known scientists at the US National collectively as solar activity. Center for Atmospheric This activity, expressing itself Research (NCAR). Predicting the Sun's cycles through bursts of solar radiation, magnetic storms or accurately, years in advance, will help societies plan for fiery flares, can vary in intensity from very low to very active bouts of solar storms, which can slow satellite strong. It is the storms that pose the greatest danger orbits, disrupt communications and bring down power __ to civilisation. systems. On 28 August 1859, polar lights glowed and The scientists have confidence in the forecast shimmered all over the American continent as because, in a series of test runs, the newly developed darkness fell. Many people thought their city was model simulated the strength of the past eight solar aflame. The instruments used to record this magnetic cycles with more than 98 per cent accuracy. The fluctuation across the world went off their scales. forecasts are generated in part by tracking the Telegraph systems malfunctioned, hit by a massive subsurface movements of the sunspot remnants of the surge in voltage. It was perhaps the worst solar storm previous two solar cycles. in the past 200 years. Its results for humankind were small because civilisation had not yet entered a high- Solar Cycle 25 tech phase of development. But with the advent of The Great Conveyor Belt is a massive circulating modern power grids and satellites, much more is at current of fire (hot plasma) within the Sun. It has two — risk. Had something similar happened in our nuclear branches, north and south, each taking about 40 years space age, destruction would have been catastrophic. NASA is now sounding an alarm because the North close to the north magnetic pole and is the most vulnerable to solar activity. systems. The scientists have confidence in the forecast because, in a series of test runs, the newly developed model simulated the strength of the past eight solar cycles with more than 98 per cent accuracy. The forecasts are generated in part by tracking the subsurface movements of the sunspot remnants of the previous two solar cycles. Solar Cycle 25 The Great Conveyor Belt is a massive circulating current of fire (hot plasma) within the Sun. It has two branches, north and south, each taking about 40 years 34 * NEXUS Sunspot numbers and cycles American continent is so APRIL - MAY 2009 www.nexusmagazine.com