Nexus - 1503 - New Times Magazine-pages

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Iran: "a major strategic threat"? In much the same terms as the Bush administration, the NATO- sponsored report states, without evidence, that Iran constitutes "a major strategic threat": "An Iranian nuclear weapons capability would pose a major strategic threat—not only to Israel, which it has threatened to destroy, but also to the region as a whole, to Europe and to the United States. Secondly, it could be the beginning of a new multi-polar nuclear arms race in the most volatile region of the world." [Ter ee a TY "In sum, nuclear weapons remain indispensable, and nuclear escalation continues to remain an element of any modern strategy... ",..Nuclear escalation is the ultimate step in responding asymmetrically, and at the same time the most powerful way of inducing uncertainty in an opponent's mind. (Report, pp. 96-97; emphasis added) The group's Report identifies six key "challenges" which may often result as potential threats to global security: ¢ Demography. "Population growth and change across the globe will swiftly change the world we knew. The challenge this poses for welfare, good governance and energy security (among other things) is vast." * Climate change. "This greatly threatens physical certainty, and is leading to a whole new type of politics—one predicated, perhaps more than ever, on our collective future." « Energy security. "Energy security continues to absorb us. The supply and demand of individual nations and the weakening of the international market infrastructure for energy distribution w make the situation more precarious than These { ever." ao . constitute i + Rise of the irrational. "There is also os the more philosophic problem of the rise indictme of the irrational—the discounting of the Bush admil rational. Though seemingly abstract, this problem is demonstrated in deeply relen practical ways. [These include] the decline of respect for logical argument and evidence, a drift away from science in a civilisation that is deeply technological. The ultimate example is the rise of religious fundamentalism, which, as political fanaticism, presents itself as the only source of certainty." ¢ Weakening of the nation state. "This coincides with the weakening of world institutions, including the United Nations and regional organisations such as the European Union, NATO and others." The dark side of globalisation. "These [drawbacks] include internationalised terrorism, organised crime and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, but also asymmetric threats from proxy actors or the abuse of financial and energy leverage." fear-mo in relatic alleged nuc from | (Danart an ait nn 14-418) -- wa-----O- ince an energy security Careful timing? The controversial NATO-sponsored report calling for a pre-emptive nuclear attack on Iran was released »atens physical certainty, shortly after the [November 2007] publication of the National > of Intelligence Estimate (NIE) report entitled ore "Iran: Nuclear Intentions and Capabilities". The latter denies Iran's nuclear c S rity The NIE report, based on the assessments of and 16 US intelligence agencies, refutes the Bush the administration's main justification for ‘ket waging a pre-emptive nuclear war on Iran. ion w 2 0 The NIE report confirms that Iran "halted its han These fi ndings nuclear weapons program in 2003": constitute a damning "These findings constitute a damning uso os indictment of the Bush administration's rise indictment of the relentless fear-mongering in relation to the Bush administration's an alleged nuclear threat from Iran. They act, demonstrate that just as in the buildup to ply relentless the war against Iraq five years ago, the White House has been engaged in a systematic campaign to drag the American people into another war based on lies." (Bill Van Auken, "NATO must prepare for nuclear first strike...", WSWS.org, 24 January 2008) fear-mongering in relation to an alleged nuclear threat from Iran." It should be noted that this recently declassified intelligence (pertaining to Iran, contained in the 2007 NIE report) was known by the White House, the Pentagon and most probably NATO since September 2003. Ironically, US military documents confirm that the Bush administration initiated its war preparations against hese [drawbacks] include Iran in July 2003, two months prior to the confirmation by US anised crime and the intelligence that Iran did not constitute a nuclear threat. ; destruction, but also The July 2003 war scenarios were launched under TIRANNT— sor the abuse of financial Theater Iran Near Term. The justification for TIRANNT as well as for subsequent US war plans directed against Iran (which as of dort, op. cit., pp. 14-15) 2004 included the active participation of NATO and Israel) has always been that Iran is developing nuclear weapons and plans to use them against us. >oncept of deterrence is Following the publication of the NIE report, there has been an nd non-state actors. This avalanche of media propaganda directed against Tehran, on as well as on the ability essentially with a view to invalidating the statements of the NIE ary] escalation". In this concerning Tehran's nuclear program. t describes as: Moreover, a third sanctions resolution by the UN Security a full bag of both carrots Council (UNSC) was initiated with a view to forcing Iran to halt 's of soft and hard power, uranium enrichment. The proposed UNSC resolution, which is t to nuclear weapons." opposed by China and Russia, includes a travel ban on Iranian p. 96; emphasis added) officials involved in the country's nuclear programs and "These findings constitute a damning Bn relentless fear-mongering in relation to an alleged nuclear threat from Iran." Deterrence and Pre-emption According to the Report, a new concept of deterrence is required, directed against both state and non-state actors. This "new deterrence” is based on pre-emption as well as on the ability to "restore deterrence through [military] escalation". In this context, the Report contemplates what it describes as: "...escalation dominance, the use of a full bag of both carrots and sticks—and indeed all instruments of soft and hard power, ranging from the diplomatic protest to nuclear weapons." (Report, op cit., p. 96; emphasis added) 14 = NEXUS APRIL — MAY 2008 (Report, op. cit., p. 45) _ indictment of the _ Bush administration's (Report, op. cit., pp. 14-15) www.nexusmagazine.com