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Environmentalists say that Exxon Mobil, in particular, has provided funding to organisations that disagree with the "consensus" view on climate change. See, for example, http://www.exxonsecrets.org. On the other hand, the Royal Society is subsidised by the UK government, and most scientists worldwide are State-funded. It has been said that the fundamental equation of State-subsidised science is "No Problem Equals No Funding". The Sunday Telegraph article intentionally avoids point-scoring of this kind, on either side of the debate, and is directed not ad hominem but ad rem. As for UK funding of the UN's technical panel on climate change, the UN's documents occasionally acknowledge the British government's funding. permanent ice-pack now (Thompson et al. 2000; Briffa 2000; Lamb 1972a, b; Villalba 1990, 1994). In 1421, a Chinese Imperial Navy squadron sailed right round the Arctic and found no ice anywhere. It is possible that at that time there was less of an icecap at the North Pole than there is now, particularly in summer. Yet the polar bears survived. Though there has been much discussion of the supposed threat posed by the warmer Arctic, the polar bears are thriving in the current warm period. Eleven of the 13 principal known families are prospering as never before. Greenland in the Middle Ages: Erik the Red had named Greenland "Greenland" to encourage Danish settlers, because in his time south-western Greenland was indeed green. It was ice free, and was extensively cultivated until c. 1425, when the farms were suddenly overrun by permafrost. The Viking agricultural settlements remain under permafrost to this day—a powerful indication that the Middle Ages were warmer than the present, and that there is little cause for alarm at the current melting of Greenland glaciers because they are very likely to have melted to more than their present extent during the mediaeval warm period. The "little ice age": The mediaeval warm period was followed by a 300-year "little ice age" until c. 1750. At the beginning of this period, mean temperatures dropped by 1.5° C in 100 years. The coldest period was c. 1550 to 1700 (Jones et al. 1998; Villalba 1990, 1994). Frost fairs were held on the frozen River Thames in London. Not only is the mediaeval warm period not shown on the UN's graph of temperature over the past 1,000 years, the little ice age is also absent. From c. 1750, temperatures rose and held steady until the late Victorian era. These temperature fluctuations were not caused by humankind's activities. The UN's 1996 report included a graph illustrating them. By the time of the 2001 report, the UN had eradicated the mediaeval warm period. Did rising carbon dioxide end the ice ages? The double graph, reproduced below, lists CO2 concentration above temperature; but, if the two graphs were superimposed at sufficient scale, as is customary when comparing such similar curves, changes in temperature would be seen to precede changes in CO2 concentration by 400 to 4,000 years. Petit et al. (1999) state that during each of the last four interglacial periods, the Earth was warmer than the current warm period. Was there a mediaeval warm period? beginning of this period, mean temperatures dropped by 1.5° C in Were mediaeval temperatures at least as high as today's? This 100 years. The coldest period was c. 1550 to 1700 (Jones et al. question is central to answering the question of whether "global 1998; Villalba 1990, 1994). Frost fairs were held on the frozen warming" is or will become dangerous to the planet. River Thames in London. Until the UN's 2001 report, the existence of a warm period of Not only is the mediaeval warm period not shown on the UN's about 500 years between c. AD 950 and c. 1450 had not been graph of temperature over the past 1,000 years, the little ice age is controversial. The mediaeval warm period formed part of a also absent. From c. 1750, temperatures rose and held steady natural cycle of climatic variations that had been apparent since until the late Victorian era. These temperature fluctuations were the end of the last ice age ~12,000 years ago. not caused by humankind's activities. The UN's 1996 report According to Villalba (1990, 1994), as well as Soon and included a graph illustrating them. By the time of the 2001 report, Baliunas (2003), the mediaeval warm period was warmer than the the UN had eradicated the mediaeval warm period. current warm period by up to 3° C. From c. 1000, ships were recorded as having sailed in parts of the Arctic where there is a The "hockey stick" graph controversy por The UN's 2001 graph, variously k Temperature and CO, concentration in the atmosphere over the past 400000 years she "hockey stick’ or "foxtait” on "I. a a (fram the Vostok ice core] curve", first appeared in Nature (Mann et an i al. 1998) and then, the following year, in a = i Geophysical Research Letters (Mann et al. Lt \, \ Ly } 1999). After its appearance in the UN's Po) "' y 4 VA a) Ain, 2001 report, McIntyre et al. (2003, 2005) Pa] \ : 1A LJ MI “ul \ demonstrated that the erasure of the a ‘ My ff \ Wn, k mediaeval warm period in the 2001 graph ot ¥ had been caused by inappropriate data in . eee , —s selection and incorrect use of statistical ee noe 00 080 OOOO methods. ‘Veat belore pricoeet [procsacdl = 1860} The first mistake made by Mann et al., ‘Perperstura change tom premcrt, C and copied by the UN in 2001, lay in the rr | choice of proxy data. The UN's 1996 re report had recommended against reliance ba Li upon bristlecone pines as proxies for oy i | f A reconstructing temperature, because 20th- | a a} Li H century carbon dioxide fertilisation a ! yr 4 i! "| 1 Aik it f accelerated annual growth and caused a ai . ‘ f false appearance of exceptional recent we “mo |606U | OCOD warming. Notwithstanding the warning ‘Veer betorn preset [prose = TREE} against reliance upon bristlecones in the UN's 1996 report, Mann et al. had relied ™ chiefly upon a series of bristlecone-pine Temperature and CO: concentration in the atmosphere over the past 400,000 years (Vostok ice core). datasets for their reconstruction of For more detail, refer to http://maps.grida.no/go/download/mode/plain/f/26_large.jpg. mediaeval temperatures. Worse, their Aeomdel usin Temperature and CO: concentration in the atmosphere over the past 400,000 years (Vostok ice core). For more detail, refer to http://maps.grida.no/go/download/mode/plain/f/26_large.jpg. 44 = NEXUS www.nexusmagazine.com DECEMBER 2006 — JANUARY 2007