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already announced efforts to increase the size of its seven-million- American officials would find it nearly impossible to launch an strong Basiji militia forces, which were deployed in human wave attack on Iran without having an adequate immediate pretext. attacks against Iraq during the 1980s. According to news reports, Therefore Iran must be enticed to attack the US, or must be made tens of thousands of rifles are currently being handed out. to appear to do so. A US attack could have serious implications for international The most likely scenario would be for Israel to take the lead in relations. Iran has spent the past few years cementing economic bombing Iranian nuclear facilities. To Tehran, this would signify and military ties with China, Russia and the EU, and such efforts US involvement, as Israeli planes would likely fly over US- have intensified dramatically within past weeks. These nations, to controlled Iraqi air space. Iran would then predictably retaliate varying degrees, view the US as a superpower that has outlived against both Israel and the US, perhaps by launching Scud much of its usefulness to the rest of the world. missiles toward Israel and Sunburn cruise missiles against one or The US is now a liability in many respects: its immense more American warships stationed in the Persian Gulf. The loss national debt and trade deficits weigh down the global economy; of an aircraft carrier or battleship with hundreds or thousands of its profligate consumption of resources leaves less to go around American sailors on board could then summon a sufficient for other nations; its refusal to sign the Kyoto accord ensures a emotional response from the American people so that the full century of environmental collapse; and its arrogant militarism resources of the nation (including an immediate re-institution of serves to undermine any hopes for cooperative solutions to future the draft) could be mustered behind a three-pronged invasion of contests over dwindling resources. Iran from Iraq, Afghanistan and the Gulf. No government wants to take on the US militarily. But Alternatively, if Iran did not take the bait and sink a US war- Washington appears determined to control the choke-points of ship, Israel could do so under false flag, with the American people global resource flows. Thus the lead- being told that the Iranian mullahs ers of China, Russia—and, to a lesser were to blame. Or an American city extent, even those of the EU—would could be attacked from within by in their own view be acting in self- "terrorists", with Tehran again being defence by drawing a line in the sand assigned the guilt. around Iran. Indeed, in recent weeks, . These events are most likely to Russia has begun selling some of its These events are most likely commence before the end of 2005, as more advanced missiles to Syria, Iran cannot be permitted to open its Venezuela and Iran, just as the US to commence before the oil bourse in March 2006. P has amped up its rhetoric against end of 2005, as Iran cannot Once the chain of events begins, it these countries. A A is anyone's guess how it might be permitted to open its unwind over the ensuing weeks, LIKELY SCENARIOS oil bourse in March 2006. months and perhaps even years. It What can we expect in the weeks seems more than likely that China and months ahead? Over the short would take this as an opportunity to term, we will see diplomatic dump its dollar holdings on world wrangling and the seeding of news markets, thus tipping the US econo- stories with inflammatory comments my into a depression. Russia's from unnamed government sources. response can only be guessed at. An example of the latter is a Reuters article ("Iran Will Know Domestically, the US would likely institute draconian measures to How to Build Bomb in 6 Months — Israel") by Andrew monitor citizens’ "patriotism" and severely restrict the freedoms of Cawthorne, dated February 15, in which anonymous Israeli those who questioned the government's actions. And the US officials are quoted as saying that Tehran is much closer to having might well take the opportunity to widen the war to Venezuela atomic weapons than most US and European experts have and other sites of "tyranny" around the world. estimated. While the Iraq invasion and its aftermath have been immensely If and when the EU's talks with Iran break down, China and destructive events, there are signs that what is in store will be far, Russia seem likely to block any UN Security Council resolution far worse. oo designed to impose sanctions on Tehran. The US is no more likely to find support for punitive measures among the G8 About the Author: nations, since Japan obtains about 15 per cent of its oil from Iran Richard Heinberg is the author of six books including The and has few easy alternative sources to make up the difference in Party's Over: Oil, War and the Fate of Industrial Societies (New the event of a trade embargo. Society, 2003; reviewed in NEXUS 10/01), and Powerdown: As noted above, the Bush administration evidently feels that an Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World (New Society, attack on Iran would result in a quick collapse of the government, 2004). He is a journalist and lecturer, an educator and editor, and so Iranian dissident groups are no doubt being prepared to —_—and also a core faculty member of New College of California step into the power vacuum that might emerge. However, if the | where he teaches a program on "Culture, Ecology and neoconservatives are as wrong here as they were in Iraq and the — Sustainable Community". His monthly MuseLetter, now in its Tehran regime did not fall, then the US would be presented witha 14th year of publication, was nominated in 1994 for an dilemma. If it withdrew, it would face defeat and humiliation. Alternative Press Award. Richard Heinberg's previous article But a pursuit of invasion and militarily enforced regime change —__ reprinted in NEXUS, "The Endangered US Dollar" (see 12/01), would be extremely costly in terms of dollars and human lives. _ was first published in MuseLetter #149, August 2004. This cur- How to justify either effort to the American people? rent article was first published as "Onward to Iran" in Because the likely outcomes are unpalatable, and because the MuseLetter #155, March 2005. Visit the MuseLetter website at ongoing occupation of neighbouring Iraq is not going well, http://www.museletter.com. end of 2005, as Iran cannot be permitted to open its oil bourse in March 2006. About the Author: Richard Heinberg is the author of six books including The Party's Over: Oil, War and the Fate of Industrial Societies (New Society, 2003; reviewed in NEXUS 10/01), and Powerdown: Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World (New Society, 2004). He is a journalist and lecturer, an educator and editor, and also a core faculty member of New College of California where he teaches a program on "Culture, Ecology and Sustainable Community". His monthly MuseLetter, now in its 14th year of publication, was nominated in 1994 for an Alternative Press Award. Richard Heinberg's previous article reprinted in NEXUS, "The Endangered US Dollar" (see 12/01), was first published in MuseLetter #149, August 2004. This cur- rent article was first published as "Onward to Iran" in MuseLetter #155, March 2005. Visit the MuseLetter website at http:/www.museletter.com. 16 = NEXUS APRIL — MAY 2005 These events are most likely to commence before the www.nexusmagazine.com