Nexus - 1203 - New Times Magazine-pages

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The first, which is the one most widely discussed, is that Iran is reputedly seeking to develop nuclear weapons. Most Western intelligence agencies estimate that Iran is three to five years away from being able to produce bombs from scratch. However, missile delivery systems are already in place that could loft warheads to cities in Israel or to American bases throughout the Middle East and Central Asia. America is willing to countenance Pakistan's and Israel's nuclear capability, but these nations work with the US; Iran, in contrast, is independent and is making its own security deals with China, Russia and Venezuela, and would be considered a threat to Israel. From the Iranian perspective, though, the development of a nuclear deterrent makes perfect sense in view of the recent US invasion of neighbouring Iraq. The second reason has to do with the challenge that Tehran pre- sents to the US economy. According to recent news articles ema- nating from Iran, that country is planning to establish a regional oil stock exchange. A December 28, 2004, article in the London- based online publication IranMania.com notes: Tran will move a step closer to establishing its much- publicised oil exchange next week, when the Oil Ministry and the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Finance are set to sign a memorandum of understanding (MoU), which will set the ground for the high-profile initiative. Hossein Talebi, the National Iranian Oil Company's direc - tor for information technology affairs, told Fars news agency that the project would enter the executive phase immediately after the MoU is signed. The official further said that petrochemicals, crude oil and oil and gas products will be traded at the petroleum exchange. "The oil exchange would strive to make Iran the main hub for oil deals in the region," he said, adding that most deals will be conducted through the Internet... Iran announced in September its petroleum exchange will become operational by March 2006... (Source: http://www. iranmania.com) As William Clark argues in his forthcoming book Petrodollar Warfare (New Society, summer 2005), the denomination of global oil sales in US dollars has kept the American dollar artificially strong throughout the period from 1974 to present, enabling Washington to run up huge foreign-funded government debt and trade deficits. Tehran's action, whether or not deliberately calculated to do so, could cause a dollar crash. Iraq was the first nation to announce intentions to sell oil for euros instead of dollars (in November 2000), and one of the first acts of the provisional government put in place by invading US forces was to return oil sales to the dollar standard. In an article titled "The Real Reasons Why Iran is the Next Target: The Emerging Euro-denominated International Oil Marker" (October 27, 2004, http://www.globalresearch.ca/articles/CLA410A.html), Clark notes: ...Similar to the Iraq war, upcoming operations against Tran relate to the macroeconomics of ‘petrodollar recycling' and the unpublicized but real challenge to US dollar supremacy from the euro as an alternative oil transaction currency... Candidly stated, 'Operation Iraqi Freedom’ was a war designed to install a pro-US puppet in Iraq, establish multi - ple US military bases before the onset of Peak Oil, and to reconvert Iraq back to petrodollars while hoping to thwart further OPEC momentum towards the euro as an alternative oil-transaction currency... APRIL — MAY 2005 From a purely economic and monetary perspective, a petroeuro system is a logical development given that the European Union imports more oil from OPEC producers than does the US, and the EU accounts for 45% of imports into the Middle East... One of the Federal Reserve's nightmares may begin to unfold in 2005 or 2006, when it appears international buyers will have a choice of buying a barrel of oil for $50 dollars on the NYMEX and IPE—or purchase a barrel of oil for E37 - E40 via the Iranian Bourse... A successful Iranian Bourse would solidify the petroeuro as an alternative oil-transaction currency, and thereby end the petrodollar's hegemonic status as the monopoly oil currency... A third reason for the US to invade Iran arises from long-term American geopolitical strategy: Iran is one of the few important oil exporters without a US military presence (others include Russia and Venezuela). Further, Iran is strategically located between Afghanistan and Iraq, bridging the Middle East and Central Asia, and its control is thus essential for US domination of those oil-rich regions. With the approach of Peak Oil, the world has entered the end- game phase of the industrial interval. If the US does not gain a stranglehold on world resource streams, then China—now the world's main consumer of steel, grain, meat and coal—will do so. Already China is gaining long-term oil contracts in Saudi Arabia, Iran, Venezuela and Nigeria; the Chinese are even seeking a size- able portion of Canadian oil production and have actually attempted to buy an American oil company (Unocal). While on the surface the US and China are politely trading (Americans buy cheap Chinese goods, the Chinese invest their earnings in US Treasury Bills in order to enable Americans to IRAN f a, = rol ~ gee Sie I ‘ ie 2. "The President's policy is quite strategic. We only invade countries he can pronounce." NEXUS * 13 www.nexusmagazine.com