Nexus - 1203 - New Times Magazine-pages

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In 1921, Reza Khan, an army officer, organised a coup d'état fomented by the United States (which encouraged Saddam that left him as the country's shah and founder of the Pahlavi Hussein to attack) in order to weaken both countries—Iran being dynasty. The new shah acted to modernise the country while also supported by Syria and Libya and receiving weaponry from North managing to negotiate better terms with BP. In 1935, with the Korea and China (as well as the US), and Iraq enjoying wider nation coming under increasing pressure from both Britain and support among both Arab and Western nations with the Soviet Russia, the shah encouraged German commercial enterprise and Union its largest arms supplier. War deaths were estimated at up changed the country's name from Persia to Iran (Farsi for to 1.5 million. "Aryan"). Britain and the Soviet Union simultaneously invaded Khomeini died in 1989, and political power in Iran passed Iran in 1941 and quickly overcame Iranian resistance. Reza Shah largely to the president, Rafsanjani, a more moderate leader abdicated in favour of his son, who ascended the throne as (though the mullahs retained supreme authority). Rafsanjani, who Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi. In September 1943, Iran sought better relations with the West in order to attract investment declared war on Germany. capital, was succeeded in 1997 by Khatami, the current president, After the war, Iran's prime minister, a land-owning aristocrat also a moderate, who has pursued improved relations with the US named Mohammad Mossadeq, nationalised BP's exclusive con- and Saudi Arabia. However, as an Islamic republic, Iran often cession in order to satisfy the country's growing need for revenue spouts anti-American rhetoric, and has recently courted closer to pay for modernisation. With this nationalisation of its oil economic and security ties with Russia and China. fields, Iran would come to serve as an example for other resource- Iran's oil endowment is both its treasure and its curse. rich Third World countries. Mossadegq, a flamboyant populist According to Colin Campbell (writing in ASPO newsletter no. 32, leader, spoke prominently at the United Nations and was the 1951 August 2003), about 120 billion barrels of oil have been found in Time magazine Man of the Year. Britain, furious, blockaded Iran Iran, which made it a significant producer throughout the 20th and took its case against Mossadeq to the World Court—which century: ruled in Iran's favour. Most of the discovery to date lies in a few giant fields...which In 1953, British intelligence and the were mainly found by the CIA colluded to overthrow Consortium in the 1960s based Mossadeq, with General Norman on prospects long known to BP's Schwarzkopf—father of the leader of Once Mossadeq was gone, explorers... There have been the American forces during the the shah assumed dictatorial recent reports of major discover - Desert Storm operation in 1990— re ies at Bushehr, but it turns out playing a key role in the plot. Once powers, granted oil rights to that they are almost certainly Mossadeq was gone (he spent his a consortium of British and long-known deposits of high sul - declining years under house arrest . . hur heavy oil of no particular and died in 1967), the shah assumed American companies and significance. Future discovery dictatorial powers, granted oil rights established close ties with is here estimated at about 8 bil - to a consortium of British and . lion barrels, probably mainly American companies and established the United States. coming from the offshore. , close ties with the United States. Over the ensuing quarter-century, Campbell notes that Iran, a co- Shah Reza Pahlavi led efforts to indus- founder of OPEC in 1961, has the trialise his country, commissioning nuclear power plants from "typical twin-peaked [oil production] profile of an OPEC France and Germany during the early 1970s. In 1978, he refused country": BP's proposal for a 25-year renewal of its oil extraction agree- The first peak was passed in 1974 at 6.1 Mb/d, falling to a ment. The shah had outlived his usefulness. low of 1.2 Mb/d in 1980, before recovering to 3.4 Mb/d in In his book A Century of War: Anglo-American Oil Politics 2002. Some reports suggest that depletion of present and the New World Order (Pluto Press, 2004, rev. ed.), William reserves is running as high as 7%, which may reflect opera - Engdahl sets forth the view that the fall of the Pahlavi dynasty and tional shortcomings and lack of investment... the installation of Ayatollah Khomeini in 1979 were engineered [P]roduction could in resource terms rise to a second peak by British intelligence and the CIA as part of a Washington in 2009 at almost 5 Mb/d before commencing its terminal strategy, proudly masterminded by Zbigniew Brzezinski, to stoke decline at 2.6% a year, but operational and investment con - the fires of radical Islam throughout the Middle East in order to straints may prevent such a level being reached in practice, undermine efforts at Arab nationalism. The thought was that with 3-4 Mb/d peak being perhaps more likely. Naturally, countries like Iran and Iraq could be played off against one any new invasion would radically affect this forecast. another, then later the US could sweep in and pick up the pieces. The radical Islamists would also serve to undermine Soviet ties in Campbell also notes: "The country's gas resources were very the region; they were at the centre of the Afghanistan war against large indeed, totalling some 1000 Tcf." the USSR and assisted in the later Balkans campaigns. They also Iran currently exports about 2.3 million barrels of oil per day would later provide a convenient new enemy to replace the Soviet (the world uses about 85 Mb/d). Union after the end of the Cold War. Covert connections between the new Iranian theocratic leader- | WHY WOULD THE US ATTACK IRAN? ship and the incoming Reagan administration in the United States At first thought, it seems a US attack on Iran would seem fool- were demonstrated by the so-called October Surprise, which ish, given that the American military is already bogged down in spelled the end of Jimmy Carter's presidency, and the guns-for- neighbouring Iraq. However, there are three important reasons hostages deal, also known as the Iran—Contra scandal. why the Bush administration might be more than willing to take The Iran-Iraq war (1980-88) appears to have been covertly up the immense risks involved. Once Mossadeq was gone, the shah assumed dictatorial powers, granted oil rights to a consortium of British and American companies and established close ties with Campbell also notes: "The country's gas resources were very large indeed, totalling some 1000 Tcf." Iran currently exports about 2.3 million barrels of oil per day (the world uses about 85 Mb/d). WHY WOULD THE US ATTACK IRAN? At first thought, it seems a US attack on Iran would seem fool- ish, given that the American military is already bogged down in neighbouring Iraq. However, there are three important reasons why the Bush administration might be more than willing to take up the immense risks involved. 12 + NEXUS APRIL — MAY 2005 the United States. www.nexusmagazine.com