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the Surveyors, who report hard data and not abstract modelling; the FTW readers: West Africa, Middle East and South America. Not Economists, who deny reality and assert that money produces one of those well-explored regions has anything near the two or energy and not the other way around; and the Pretenders, "who three Ghawar fields we need to find immediately to avert a crisis. now full-well what the situation is but pretend otherwise for Assuming sufficient oil were found, how much money would short-term political objectives". In the last camp he places Faith be needed to develop it and bring it to market? ExxonMobil's Birol of the IEA, supposedly the world's energy watchdog. spokesman indicated that a global annual investment of US$530 Even Birol made his own startling revelations on the second day _ billion would be required. The IEA's Faith Birol stated that $16 when he confirmed that another new trend, new since Paris, had trillion would have to be invested before 2030 to develop oil and come dominant. Many presenters from German and European gas reserves that, even he admitted, no one is sure exist. industry began listing a new priority for future energy planning that I had not heard before. They all emphasised "energy security". | Ali Samsam Bakhtiari: A Candid Assessment as the top concern, or one of their most important concerns, for the Another fixture at ASPO conferences is Ali Samsam Bakhtiari, future. I checked my notes from Paris; I hadn't recorded its being Vice President of the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC). A mentioned once. That sounded military to suave and genial Persian on whose tribal me, at least in terms of building geostrategic land the first oil well in the Middle East was alliances which always have military options drilled, Bakhtiari was doggedly followed by included. When confronted directly on that journalists and documentarians looking for joint, the presenters retreated to assertions tae relevant quotations. Frequently in the that what they really want are treaties and "The crisis Is very, very company of Simmons, he remained available economic agreements. "Well," I thought, W Id War Ill throughout the conference. Bakhtiari is "what enforces those things?" near. or ar firmly in the camp of the Surveyors, warning Birol also hit hard on this point. Then he has started. It has about Peak Oil and convinced of its engaged in a kind of irrational presentation certainty. It was he who, in Paris, dropped in which he put forth four points. The first already affected every the first hints to me and others that Saudi two were telling. Firstly, he said the IEA is single citizen of the Arabia may have peaked in May 2003. I absolutely certain that there is enough ener- . . have come to call him "the Prophet Ali"—a Middle East. Soon it label which makes him quickly blush and gy to guarantee economic growth until 2025. In his next point, he said that (in light of will spill over to affect wave his hands in embarrassment. Shell's downward revisions and pend- . ays Like others from the region attending ing revisions from other major oil com- every single citizen of the conference, Bakhtiari brought new panies) there is sufficient uncertainty the world." warnings. He cited the data about about the true nature of stated world sudden and unexpected declines as the reserves that a new "transparent" result of bottle-brush drilling in the reserve accounting system should be region, and expressed his strong doubts established to provide the needed trust that Saudi Arabia could increase for the financial markets. In other production under any circumstances. words, his first point is meaningless. While a bit more reticent to express his Colin Campbell, seated on the panel fears about growing instability within with Birol, quipped, "If there were the region, he was more candid in his transparency, it would be clear that we assessment of the global energy picture. are at peak now and everything might Bakhtiari told the conference: "The fall apart". Again, I thought of the crisis is very, very near. World War headlines and war and said to myself, Ill has started. It has already affected "Um, it already is". every single citizen of the Middle East. Soon it will spill over to British Petroleum and ExxonMobil also stepped through the affect every single citizen of the world. Syria's oil production is looking glass. After presenting a series of slides which almost in terminal decline. Yemen is following. Major Middle East — Ali Samsam Bakhtiari Vice President National Iranian Oil Company everyone in the audience was quite capable of reading, BP producers, including Saudi Arabia, will peak soon or have already spokesman Francis Harper, addressing the issue of "reserve peaked." growth", refused to answer two direct questions about how his Off the stage, he was even more direct. "The present war can- charts had just absolutely confirmed an imminent peak and not be confined to the Middle East. It will soon spill over to the decline. He just didn't answer. He did say that "Reserve esti- rest of the world. The final implications will upset the global mates are uncertain and can vary widely throughout field life". applecart." Later, ASPO founder Campbell speculated that BP is perhaps the worst book-cooker of all the majors when it comes to reserves, Rimini and Uppsala Protocols: Ethical Management and that there may be some large surprises coming as increasing Colin Campbell has begun the search, from a true expert's pressure is put on the majors to produce transparent and verifiable viewpoint, for immediate, if admittedly incomplete, solutions. In calculations. his final presentation, he submitted a draft of a plan to manage ExxonMobil's G. Jeffrey Johnson, while saying that supply is decline ethically. Called the Uppsala Protocol (formerly the sufficient to satisfy growth until 2020, also admitted that current — Rimini Protocol; see http://www.peakoil.net), Campbell's simple decline is at 4-6% per year. Economic growth is not possible proposal approaches Peak Oil from the perspective of without increased energy production. When asked by me where —_ humanitarian and egalitarian imperatives rather than market ExxonMobil is working feverishly to find new reserves, Johnson forces. Though simple in concept, the two proposals for future rattled off a list of countries and regions already well familiar to | consumption in the Uppsala Protocol may ultimately force FTW readers: West Africa, Middle East and South America. Not one of those well-explored regions has anything near the two or three Ghawar fields we need to find immediately to avert a crisis. Assuming sufficient oil were found, how much money would be needed to develop it and bring it to market? ExxonMobil's spokesman indicated that a global annual investment of US$530 billion would be required. The IEA's Faith Birol stated that $16 trillion would have to be invested before 2030 to develop oil and gas reserves that, even he admitted, no one is sure exist. "The crisis is very, very near. World War Ill near. has started. It has already affected every single citizen of the Middle East. Soon it Soon it will spill over to affect every single citizen of the world." Rimini and Uppsala Protocols: Ethical Management Colin Campbell has begun the search, from a true expert's viewpoint, for immediate, if admittedly incomplete, solutions. In his final presentation, he submitted a draft of a plan to manage decline ethically. Called the Uppsala Protocol (formerly the Rimini Protocol; see http://www.peakoil.net), Campbell's simple proposal approaches Peak Oil from the perspective of humanitarian and egalitarian imperatives rather than market forces. Though simple in concept, the two proposals for future consumption in the Uppsala Protocol may ultimately force NEXUS = 13 AUGUST — SEPTEMBER 2004 www.nexusmagazine.com