Nexus - 1105 - New Times Magazine-pages

Page Content (OCR)

Oil PEAK REVISITED: COLLECTOR CALLS THE Bibl As major oilfields continue to decline in productivity, as new infrastructure is too expensive to build and as global oil reserves cannot meet demand, we are on the brink of a worldwide economic and social crisis. The one thing that every Middle Eastern leader, manager and planner who dreams of holding his country together fears now is that there will be a widespread uprising inspired by the perceived victory against Spain after [the bombing in] Madrid and Spain's withdrawal from Iraq, that it might prompt much of the Muslim world to start attacking oil facilities everywhere. This is the way they see that has worked, to defeat the West and to avenge their grievances. May God help us all if that happens. Stability must come to Iraq. But how? — Anonymous Middle Eastern participant at the Third Conference of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas, Berlin, Germany, May 2004 une 21, 2004, Berlin and Los Angeles — From The Wilderness (FTW) began writ- ing about Peak Oil in the summer of 2002. It was much more difficult then to dis- cuss Peak Oil, what it means or how certain, quick and defiant was to be its arrival. Denial in many minds was so instant and overwhelming that only a trained eye could see its millisecond appearance before encountering the brick wall of a closed mind. By the spring of 2004, things had changed dramatically. This is both the good news and the bad news. In May 2004, I attended the Third Annual Conference of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO) in Berlin, Germany. Although I have a great many friends in ASPO, I tend to leave these conferences feeling as though I've had a big meal but am still hungry. Governed as they were by scientific protocols, the 2003 and 2004 conferences seemed to occur in vacuums. With the cool professionalism that's proper to scientific discourse, the conferences marshalled excellent resources of data and analysis while remaining eerily detached from political and economic developments in the outside world—detached from 9/11, from violence and intrigue in Iraq, in Saudi Arabia, in West Africa, in Venezuela; detached from bitter conflict and bloodshed, and from economic disintegration. That disconnect was nowhere near as obvious in Paris in May 2003 as it was in Berlin a year later. From May 24, 2004, as people arrived for the conference, through to the final day on May 26, the hottest conversations were as much about what was going on in the headlines as about what was being discussed inside the room. The two didn't converge nearly enough. Peak Oil, Berlin, was almost twice as large as Paris had been. Many of the 250-plus attendees arrived on both mornings with papers under their arms containing stories about oil shortages and economic issues connected thereto. They tended to meet outside for drinks or meals, asking: "Have you seen the cover of the June 2004 National Geographic? It's Peak Oil!"; "Did you see the International Herald Tribune today on global production and supply?"; "Do you think the Saudis really can increase production, or are they bluffing?"; "Did you see where Shell has downgraded its reserves, again!?"; "Did you notice that someone finally attacked a Saudi oil facility? Now the Saudis won't have to prove that they can increase production, either to their people or the markets. It's the perfect excuse." This had been no overnight development. For almost the entire year between the Paris and Berlin conferences, the icons of the mainstream press—the ones known and employed to mould public and business perception—had been acknowledging Peak Oil's reality, sometimes reluctantly, sometimes less than directly, but also sometimes very boldly. CNN, the BBC, the New York Times, the Economist—dozens of media giants had begun to respond, like a giant ship turning slowly in the water. The ship had clearly changed course, but was it enough? Was it in time? by Michael C. Ruppert © June 2004 From The Wilderness Publications All rights reserved PO Box 6061-350 Sherman Oaks, CA 91413, USA Telephone: +1 (818) 788 8791 Email: service@copvcia.com Website: http://www. fromthewilderness.com by Michael C. Ruppert © June 2004 From The Wilderness Publications All rights reserved NEXUS 11 AUGUST —- SEPTEMBER 2004 www.nexusmagazine.com