Nexus - 1001 - New Times Magazine-pages

Page Content (OCR)

(a) Oil from coal, "shale" tar sands, heavy oil: the resource is range missiles—and isn't exactly a friendly place—is not deemed very large, but the extraction rate is low and costly, sometimes athreat. [Note: In mid-October, North Korea owned up to its giving negative net energy; nuclear weapons program, though the Americans have known ) Deepwaver a (from a depth of greater than 500 metres): about it for years. pl : for thinking there h about illion barrels; e cynic can be forgiven for thinking there is some other (c) Polar: about 30 billion, maybe; motive for these military moves. Could it be oil? (d) Natural gas liquids: about 300 billion barrels. FTW: When and how was it discovered that the Central Asian FTW: Will Central Asian/Caspian pipelines have an impact on nerves were much smaller than anticipated? the crisis? How long will it take them to come on line? ‘ampbell: I guess you could say over the past 24 months as the Campbell: There was talk of the place holding over 200 Gb different pieces in the jigsaw fell into place. There is no single [billion barrels]—I think emanating from the USGS [US event or date, but, rather, an evolving picture. Geological Survey]—but the results after 10 years of work have FTW: What about replacement sources and alternative been disappointing. The West came in energy? Tar sands? with high hopes. The Soviets found Campbell: Of course, there are Tengiz onshore in 1979 with about 6 Gb alternatives ranging from wind, sun, of very deep, high-sulphur oil in a reef. tide, nuclear, etc., but today they con- Chevron took over and is now producing . tribute only a very small percentage it with difficulty. But offshore they World per-capita and do not come close to matching the found a huge prospect called Kashagan A A oil of the past in terms of cost or conve- in a similar geological setting to Tengiz. oil production peaked nience. No doubt production from tar If it ae ne could have con In 1 979 and has been sans and heavy 0 s can be stepped up taine , but they have now drille . . . in the future but it is painfully slow an three deep wells at huge cost, finding in decline since. expensive, carrying also environmental that instead of being a single reservoir, costs. It will help ameliorate the it—like Tengiz—is made up of reefs. decline, but has minimal impact on Reserves are now quoted at between 9 peak. The simple solution is to use Gb and 13 Gb. BP-Statoil has pulled less. We are extremely wasteful ener- out. Caspian production won't make any gy-users. But it involves a fundamental material difference to world supply. There is, however, a lot of change of attitude and the rejection of classical economic princi- gas in the vicinity. To put it in perspective, this Caspian oil ples, which were built on endless growth in a world of limitless would supply the world for a little over a year, but it is broadly resources. Those days are over, exacerbated by the soaring popu- the same as US potential. lation—itself now set to decline, partly from energy shortage. It is quite possible that the Afghan war was about securing a FTW: Has anyone determined what percentage of oil is used strong point in this area. But interest in it has now dwindled, for military purposes worldwide? If so, how much? along with Caspian prospects, as the US turns to Iraq, which does Campbell: I don't know how much is used for military purpos- have some oil. It is curious that these two US military exercises es, but it must be considerable. The US has built a huge stockpile had/have different pretexts: in the Middle East for the war. (a) Afghanistan was to find the supposed architect of September FTW: Is China the end game of competition for oil? 11—in which the US failed; and Campbell: Yes, China is in desperate need of imports as its (b) Iraq is about a sudden and unexplained fear that it might own supply depletes. It has been very thoroughly explored. It develop some objectionable weapons that might pose a threat to will be vying with the US for access to foreign oil. It is already someone in the future. well established in Iraq. North Korea, which already has nuclear weapons and long- That is about how I see it. oo World per-capita oil production peaked in 1979 and has been Editor's Note: = Colin Campbell is both an academic London. As a member of the American + Interviewer Michael C. Ruppert is 24 a businessman. Educated at Society of Petroleum Geologists, The Publisher and Editor of the influential Oxford and holding a Masters degree, Geological Society of London and the newsletter From The Wilderness. he has served as a geologist for Oxford petroleum Institute of London, he has His articles have appeared regularly University, Texaco, British Petroleum qejiverad more than 35 lectures on oil . . ; and Amoco (prior to the BP Amoco : ‘ in NEXUS in the last few years. Mike merger). He has had executive depletion on three continents. was a popular speaker at the 2002 positions with Shenandoah Oil, Amoco His hosts have included universities, NEXUS Conference in Sydney and is ang Fina, and was Chairman of the governments and auto manufacturers. scheduled to speak at the 2003 NEXUS orgic American Oil Company. He has been published more than 150 Conference in Amsterdam. He has been an oil consultant for the times in the field, including in the He can be contacted at From The Bulgarian government as well as for 1997 book The Coming Oil Crisis Wilderness, PO Box 6061-350, Statoil, Mobil, Amerada, Total, Shell, Af ne Sherman Oaks, CA 91413, USA, email Esso and for the firm Petroconsultants (Multi-Science Publishing Co. and mruppert@copvcia.com, website jin Geneva. Petroconsultants). ; http://www.copvcia.com. Colin is the Convenor and newsletter. _ FOF more information on Colin (FTW is published 11 times a year; editor of the Association for the Study Campbell's work, on ASPO and the Oil subscriptions are US$50 in USA for 12 of Peak Oil (ASPO), and a Trustee of Depletion Analysis Centre, visit the issues, or US$60 foreign.) the Oil Depletion Analysis Centre in website http://www.oilcrisis.com/aspo. NEXUS * 25 in decline since. DECEMBER 2002 — JANUARY 2003 www.nexusmagazine.com