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COLIN CAMPBELL of which will not peak until the middle of the next decade. Saudi Arabia contains 25 per cent of all the oil on the planet; Iraq con- tains 11 per cent. Science and the oil industry have confirmed that there is very little oil left to be found, certainly not enough to make a differ- ence in this grim picture—a picture which goes a long way toward explaining the events of 9-11 and since. ON OIL Perhaps the World's Foremost Expert on Oil and the Oil Business Confirms the Ever More Apparent Reality of the Post-9-11 World Reality OF tne Post-9-11 world From The Wilderness (FTW): What will be the likely effects by Michael C. Ruppert © October 23, 2002 of hitting the downslope of production? Colin Campbell: Big question. Simply stated: war, starva- efore we turn to this interview, it is necessary for the read- tion, economic recession, possibly even the extinction of Homo B er to understand several critical factors about oil and oil sapiens, insofar as the evolution of life on Earth has always been production. Almost every current human endeavour, from accomplished by the extinction of over-adapted species (when transportation to manufacturing to plastics and especially to food their environmental niche changed for geologic or climatic rea- production, is inextricably intertwined with oil and natural gas sons), leaving simpler forms to continue and eventually giving supplies. rise to new, more adapted species. If Homo sapiens figures out All oil production follows a bell curve, whether in an individual how to move back to simplicity, he will be the first to do so. field or on the planet as a whole. On the ups- FTW: How soon before we start to feel the lope of the curve, production costs are signifi- effects of dwindling oil supplies? cantly lower than on the downslope when extra Campbell: We already are—in the form of effort (expense) is required to extract oil from the threatened US invasion of the Middle East. reservoirs that are emptying out. The best and The US would have to be importing 90 per cent easiest to produce oil is always extracted first The key event in of its oil by 2020 to hold even current demand, to maximise profits. " " and access to foreign oil has long been officially In 100 years, mankind has used half of all the petroleum era declared a vital national interest justifying mili- the oil on the planet, oil that took billions of i tary int tion. Probable actual physical years to produce and is tl e result of climatic Is not when the shortage of all liquid hydrocarbons worldwide conditions that have existed at only one time in won't appear for about 20 years, especially if y PP! y P' y the Earth's 4.5-billion-year history. Oil is a . deepening recession holds down demand. But non-renewable resource. but when oil people are coming to appreciate that peak is The key event in the "petroleum era" is not production peaks imminent and what it means. Some places like 3 when the oil runs out but when oil produc- the US will face shortage sooner than oth- tion peaks, especially as demand and pop- especially ers. The price is likely to soar as shortage ulation are rising. World per-capita oil looms, which itself may delay peak. production peaked in 1979 and has been in as demand and If the US does invade, there will likely decline since. The peak in volume of total population be a repeat of Vietnam with many years of world oil production is upon us right now, even as the demand—or, better said, the need—for oil is increasing rapidly. Several things are a given. Firstly, the total remaining conventional oil on the planet is estimated to be around one tril- lion barrels. Secondly, at present rates fruitless struggle in which the US will be seen as a tyrant and an oppressor, killing all those Arabs. It can't hope to subjugate the place in perpetuity, as the people don't sur- render easily—as the Palestinians have shown. So when the US has finally gone, Russia and China will likely be welcomed (not those of five or 10 years from now), there to produce whatever is left in the the world is using close to 80 million bar- ruins. rels per day. At this rate, there would be only enough oil to sus- FTW: Are the major oil companies currently downsizing? tain the planet for another 35 years under the best of scenarios. Campbell: The majors are merging and downsizing and out- But the oil that remains is going to be increasingly expensive to sourcing and not investing in new refineries because they know produce and will tend to be of a lesser quality, necessitating higher _—_ full well that production is set to decline and that the exploration refining costs, than what has already been used. All of those costs opportunities are getting fewer and fewer. Who would drill in will have to be passed on in the form of price hikes or, in some 10,000 feet of water if there were anywhere else easier left? cases, spikes. Oil price spikes invariably lead to recession. The But the companies have to sing to the stockmarket, and merger world's economy is based upon the sale of products that are either hides the collapse of the weaker brethren. The staff is purged on made from oil or need hydrocarbon energy (including natural gas) merger, and the combined budget ends up much less than the sum are rising. to operate, either via internal combustion or via electricity. of the previous components. Besides, a lot of the executives and Different regions of the world peak in oil production at differ- bankers make a lot of money from the merger. ent times. The US peaked in the early 1970s. Europe, Russia and FTW: How much oil is really left? the North Sea have also peaked. However, the OPEC nations of Campbell: You have to think of different categories of oil. the Middle East will peak last. Within a few years, they—or who- Speaking of conventional, which is the easy, cheap stuff that has ever controls them—will be in effective control of the world oil supplied most uses to date and will dominate all supply far into economy and, in essence, of human civilisation as a whole. Two the future, there is about one trillion barrels left. To this you have of the nations that will peak last are Saudi Arabia and Iraq, both to add: oil runs out but when oil production peaks, especially as demand and population are rising. 24 = NEXUS by Michael C. Ruppert © October 23, 2002 is not when the www.nexusmagazine.com DECEMBER 2002 — JANUARY 2003