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emissions are anthropogenic (e.g., agricultural soils, cattle feed lots and chemical industry)." This parallel construction requires that there be a sentence explaining the fraction of CO, emissions that are anthropogenic, but there is none. It would read as follows: "About one twenty- fifth of current CO, emissions are anthropogenic." The important fact that the vast majority of CO, emissions are natural has been omitted. In addition, not even mentioned is water vapour, by far the most important greenhouse gas. Natural emissions of water vapour are so enormous that human emissions do not even measure in com- parison. If this were explained, there would also be a sentence saying: "Virtually no water vapour emissions are anthropogenic." emissions are anthropogenic (e.g., agricultural soils, cattle feed © The most we can expect to achieve is the prediction of the lots and chemical industry)." probability distribution of the system's future possible states by This parallel construction requires that there be a sentence _ the generation of ensembles of model solutions. This reduces explaining the fraction of CO, emissions that are anthropogenic, climate change to the discernment of significant differences in but there is none. It would read as follows: "About one twenty- the statistics of such ensembles. The generation of such model Jifth of current CO, emissions are anthropogenic." The important ensembles will require the dedication of greatly increased fact that the vast majority of CO, emissions are natural has been — computer resources and the application of new methods of omitted. model diagnosis." In addition, not even mentioned is water vapour, by far the most In short, it cannot now be done. Not only is prediction funda- important greenhouse gas. Natural emissions of water vapour are — mentally impossible due to chaos, but the statistical substitute for so enormous that human emissions do not even measure in com- prediction that may be possible cannot now be done. The uncer- parison. If this were explained, there would also be a sentence _ tainty is complete. Chapter 14 includes these statements: saying: "Virtually no water vapour emissions are "The climate system is particularly challenging since it is anthropogenic." known that components in the system are inherently chaotic and there are central components which affect the system in a non- Chaos in the Climate System linear manner and potentially could switch the sign of critical The UN IPCC has ignored major scientific advances that under- feedbacks. The non-linear processes include the basic dynamical cut the theory of human interference, including the complex chaos response of the climate system and the interactions between the science that is presented in the Third Assessment Report itself. different components." According to the TAR, the climate is chaotic, so prediction of "These complex, non-linear dynamics are an inherent aspect of future states is impossible. the climate system. Amongst the important non-linear proce Advances in climate science that do not support the theory of are the role of clouds, the thermohaline circulation and sea ice. human interference have been ignored in the UN IPCC WGI There are other broad, non-linear components: the biogeochemi- Summary for Policymakers. These include the role of clouds, cal system and, in particular, the carbon system, the hydrological solar variation, lunar influence, orbital cycles, decadal oscillations cycle and the chemistry of the atmosphere." and more. If anything, the science today provides less support for "A strategy to advance our understanding must deal with the the theory of human interference underlying chaotic nature of the cli- than it did in 1995, when the IPCC mate system and the significant non- Second Assessment Report was The UN IPCC has ignored linearities. The chaotic aspect of the completed. climate system poses significant chal- Perhaps the most egregious omis- major scientific advances that lenges to predicting changes in the sion is the emerging understanding undercut the theory of human occurrence of extreme events." of the chaotic nature of climate. Not "An overriding challenge to model- only is this science very important, interference, including the ling and to the IPCC is prediction. but it is presented in considerable complex chaos science that is This challenge is particularly acute detail in the TAR itself (see below). . . when predictive capability is sought About one half of chapter 14 of the presented In the Third for a system that is chaotic, that has WGI TAR is devoted to discussing Assessment Report itself. significant non-linearities and that is the deep significance of the fact that climate processes are chaotic and therefore unpredictable. But the inherently stiff." "However, as the temporal horizon grows, then the challenge shifts as SPM does not even mention the word "chaos". chaotic elements begin to affect the evolution of the system. The Likewise, the draft UN IPCC WGI Technical Summary (TS), predictive environment shifts from one of precision to one of which was written by the same people as the SPM, has but a sin- statistical significance." gle sentence on chaos, tucked away on page 78. It says: "The cli- "There is a growing recognition in the scientific community and mate system is a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and there- _ more broadly that the Earth functions as a system, with properties fore the long-term prediction of future exact climate states isnot and behaviour that are characteristic of the system as a whole. possible. Rather, the focus must be upon the prediction of the These include critical thresholds, switch or control points, strong probability distribution of the system's future possible states by _ non-linearities, teleconnections, chaotic elements and unresolv- the generation of ensembles of model solutions." able uncertainties. Understanding components of the Earth In plain language, the kind of prediction the UN IPCC is doing System is critically important, but is insufficient on its own to is not possible. The best that might be done is to provide a proba- understand the functioning of the Earth System as a whole." bility distribution for possible futures, but the IPCC does not do Chaos is a fundamental uncertainty in climate science, but the this. The profound fact of chaotic climate is simply ignored. UN IPCC ignores it. What makes this omission so egregious is that the chaotic nature of climate is discussed in the WGI TAR itself, which the — The Influence of Solar Variation SPM and TS are supposed to be summarising. Here are some The most systematic omission in the Third Assessment statements from the expert review draft TAR, chapter 14 (the Summary for Policymakers is discussion of warming due to order has been changed for clarity): natural climate variation. "In sum, a strategy must recognise what is possible. In Evidence of natural climate temperature variation has mush- climate research and modelling, we should recognise that we are —_ roomed since the release of the 1995 Second Assessment Report. dealing with a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore | But the TAR SPM only mentions one of the many variations now that the prediction of a specific future climate state is not possible. known to exist: variable solar input, or incoming solar radiation major scientific advances that undercut the theory of human interference, including the complex chaos science that i is -a- Fe ab TL mI presented in the Third Assessment Report itself. The Influence of Solar Variation The most systematic omission in the Third Assessment Summary for Policymakers is discussion of warming due to natural climate variation. Evidence of natural climate temperature variation has mush- roomed since the release of the 1995 Second Assessment Report. But the TAR SPM only mentions one of the many variations now known to exist: variable solar input, or incoming solar radiation 28 ¢ NEXUS The UN IPCC has ignored www.nexusmagazine.com OCTOBER — NOVEMBER 2002