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is sufficient to make the point. (An earlier draft of this report can be found at the website http://www.john-daly.com/guests/ un_ipcce.htm.) The IPCC Summary for Policymakers is a study in artful bias. Specific examples of glaring omissions, false confidence and mis- leading statistics in the Summary are covered in the following pages (my emphasis is added in bold italics). (The UN IPCC WGI Summary for Policymakers as well as the Technical Summary of the report, Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, is available at the IPCC's website, http://www. ipcc.ch/.) is sufficient to make the point. (An earlier draft of this reportcan and improved methods of processing the data. These numbers be found at the website http://www.john-daly.com/guests/ take into account various adjustments, including urban heat un_ipec.htm.) island effects." The IPCC Summary for Policymakers is a study in artful bias. This is the only reference in the text to any possible problems Specific examples of glaring omissions, false confidence and mis- with the temperature record. It says "These numbers take into leading statistics in the Summary are covered in the following account various adjustments", with special reference to urban heat pages (my emphasis is added in bold italics). (The UN IPCC island effects. False certainty. The discussion of these prob- WGI Summary for Policymakers as well as the Technical lems—how likely they are to be significant, and how they have Summary of the report, Climate Change 2001: The Scientific been taken into account—has simply been omitted. In fact, how Basis, is available at the IPCC's website, http://www. ipcc.ch/.) well they have been taken into account is highly contentious. The legend for figure la at least has Temperature Record Error more detail, albeit in finer print. It says Do we know that the Earth is actually this: "The Earth's surface temperature is warming? The problem of errors in the g Q shown year by year (red bars [in the orig- surface temperature record is profound. The amount of warming Is inal report, grey in this version]) and Likely sources of bias in the surface claimed to be known with a approximately decade by decade (black temperature record of the last 140 years, 2 line, a filtered annual curve suppressing which are well known and considerable, false degree of confidence. fluctuations below near decadal time- are ignored. The amount of warming is We do not, in fact, know scales). There are uncertainties in the claimed to be k ith a false d nnual data (thin black whisker ba of confidence. We do not, in fact, know that the Earth has represent ine 95% confidence range) that the Earth has warmed at all. warmed at all. due to data gaps, random instrumental errors and uncertainties, uncertainties in bias corrections in the ocean surface line: "The global average surface tem- temperature data and also in adjust- perature has increased over the 20th cen- ments for urbanisation over the land. tury by about 0.6°C"—not "may have", or even "is likely to Over both the last 140 years and 100 years, the best estimate is have", but simply "has". This is false certainty. Any suggestion that the global average surface temperature has increased by 0.6 The discussion on SPM page 2 (the first page of text) begins with this head- of doubt is omitted, but there is plenty to doubt. +0.2°C." The text itself says: "The global average surface temperature This at least mentions specific problems. But notice the (the average of near surface air temperature over land, and sea _ placement of the parenthetical expression in the pivotal second surface temperature) has increased since 1861. Over the 20th cen- sentence, just before the list. This seems to say quite clearly that tury the increase has been 0.6 +0.2°C (figure la). This value is the error bars give the 95% confidence level for the uncertainties about 0.15°C larger than that estimated by the SAR [Second _ listed. This is simply false. The error bars give at best the 95% Assessment Report] for the period up to 1994, owing to the rela- confidence level for the pure error of sampling, which assumes the tively high temperatures of the additional years (1995 to 2000) sample is random and there are no measurement errors of the sort The amount of warming is claimed to be known with a false degree of confidence. We do not, in fact, know that the Earth has warmed at all. -0.4 i t 4 GLOBAL I ih ae Data from thermometers. 1 n 1 ra i i I i "1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2004 GLOBAL 1880 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 1900 Year 24 ¢ NEXUS SPM Figure 1a: Variations of the Earth's surface temperature for the past 140 years www.nexusmagazine.com OCTOBER — NOVEMBER 2002