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Anatomy of a "Pandemic" small sample is then accepted as applying to the whole country or So what else can we do to conjure up the impression that AIDS the whole group, however great the risk is that those investigated is a fast-spreading pandemic threatening to wipe out the entire are not representative of the whole country or group. A knowl- world's population unless we anticipate and frustrate it by forcing edgeable statistician who wants to cheat can usually do the sam- people to choke on high-priced, lethal chemotherapy deceptively pling in such a way as to favour a certain outcome, without called "antivirals"? manipulating the numbers as such. One thing is to pick out the age group that has the lowest death To round off this exposure of the statistical illusionists, I shall rate of all—say, young people between the ages of 20 and 30—and give a dramatic example of what can hide behind statistically find that AIDS (or more likely the "antivirals" prescribed for it!) is expressed reliability of the test for HIV. "the leading cause of death" for this group. Be sure not to disclose A test for HIV is reported to be 98% accurate. Let's, for the the actual percentage, as it is so small it would remove the effect. sake of the argument, assume that this is a correct assessment. In But since few people in this age group die from natural causes, our culture, since we are hypnotised by numbers and quantities, AIDS can be construed to be "the leading cause" of death in this percentages and majorities, this will sound very reassuring to group—or at least "a leading cause", along with suicide and most people. But what can that statistical truth mean for individ- accident. ual people in real life? Let's have a look. Publishing this with enough fanfare, the public will easily draw In a sample of the average American population, the estimate the false conclusion that AIDS is a leading cause of death, for HIV prevalence is in the order of 0.04%, or four per 10,000 period. ..or that at least a very high percentage of the age group in people. Assuming we test 100,000 Americans, we would then question is dying of AIDS...when the expect to find 40 true HIV-positive true death rate from AIDS, even in this persons. This means that the age group, may be as low as a fraction remaining 99,960 persons are HIV- of one per cent. Now you see it, now 2 ooas negative. However, since the test is you don't! This is one way the Official Statistics presented to only 98% accurate, it may falsely illusionists perform their statistical the United Nations said India identify two per cent of these 99,960 magic without actually lying. people as HIV-positive. That is, 1,999 Finally, we can play the effective had 560,000 AIDS orphans... persons! "orphan" card, again estimating(!) all So, in this example, out of 2,039 the millions of children orphaned by .. with only 17,000 AIDS people who test positive, only 40 are AIDS. _This is without mentioning that deaths! actually positive. That means 98% of the definition of "orphan" is any child 6 those identified by the test as "HIV- who has lost one(!) or both parents in positive" are not positive at all. In any way at all. Also, there is no reli- other words, the test, which is said to able documentation to say how many be 98% accurate and thus approved for of those missing parents actually died of commercial use, is in fact 98% AIDS or even died at all. By far the most common reason for inaccurate, looked at from the point of view of those who teste missing parents in Africa is the wars that have been raging on the positive. continent for decades. Imagine the fate of those 1,999 healthy people, told they wil A recent example from India gives an illustration of what is soon get AIDS and then bullied, intimidated or seduced by the going on. Official statistics presented to the United Nations said — medical establishment into taking AZT and similar life-threaten- India had 560,000 AIDS orphans—with only 17,000 AIDS ing drugs to "delay the onset of AIDS". Quite apart from the deaths! During a press conference, a journalist asked Dr David enormous cost of this treatment (and profit to the pharmaceutical Miller, the UNAIDS country representative, where they got these business), how many of them do you think will survive the figures of AIDS orphans from. He had no answer. The Indian ordeal? Not many, I can assure you. Health Minister referred the matter to the person who handles data Such is the diabolic scenario the US authorities have set in collection on HIV/AIDS figures for the government. He said motion. The whole population is scared into taking the test, and all there were no estimates on the number of AIDS orphans in India. who test positive are hard-sold AZT or an equally toxic drug When Dr Miller was asked what his source for the estimate was, treatment, leading to certain death. (If you still believe the media he said: "I cannot disclose the source. I will have to speak to my propaganda that AZT is a "life-saving drug", go dig up some easily colleagues in Geneva about it." verifiable facts on the Rethinking AIDS website, and do a search Another thing that has never stopped fascinating me is how on "Anthony Brink" for the background on a pending court case.) supposedly professional and responsible public agencies like the We just assumed that the test really is 98% accurate. It seems World Health Organization can know that, for example, the inci- nobody has thought of asking how this figure can be established, dence of HIV (often interpreted as equal to AIDS) in African since there are no reliable controls. As with the rest of the ruling teenage girls has increased by 26 per cent (or whatever percentage AIDS dogma and most of "HIV science", it is simply an article of reported) from one year to the next. What is their source for this faith. kind of figure? Is it from one school where they tested a few girls Actually, on the basis of what we have uncovered in this article, last year and tested another few this year—perhaps just after they we know that the margin of error can be far, far greater. But we were vaccinated or had their annual bout of flu? Or was it limited also know that testing positive in a non-specific antibody test for to pregnant teenagers? How many girls were tested? How was it hypothetical HIV is meaningless, since by itself it has no predic- done? When? Where? Can we see the studies, please?! tive value for the development of AIDS. Most people don't realise that often, when a percentage is given So is all of it just smoke and mirrors to lure trusting people "at for a country or group of people, only a small number of people risk" into a morass of profitable tests and treatments which, it is has actually been investigated. The percentage found in that openly confessed, lead nowhere but to obliteration and death? Official statistics presented to the United Nations said India ..With only 17,000 AIDS deaths! NEXUS = 21 had 560,000 AIDS orphans... AUGUST — SEPTEMBER 2002 www.nexusmagazine.com