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whenever possible, since these can be inflated at will, rather than the less glamorous numbers of existing records. Besides, when one wants to publish the number of "HIV infected", an estimate is the only option since there is no way of knowing that figure. Only a very small percentage is ever submitted to the antibody test, falsely claimed to be an "HIV test", so it's a free-for-all to estimate the numbers. If only the number of correctly diagnosed "full-blown AIDS" cases were reported, the figures would certain- ly not cause much of a stir, let alone panic. In a recent report from the USA, it was claimed that at least a third of all HIV-positive people do not even know that they are "infected"! If they do not know it themselves and have never taken a test, then how could the reporter, or whatever source he used, know that these people are HIV positive? AIDS statistics is full of these kinds of absurd and nonsensical assertions, but nobody seems to notice, let alone react. whenever possible, since these can be inflated at will, rather than born children, and indeed to anyone. And very good reason he the less glamorous numbers of existing records. Besides, when has for it, too. one wants to publish the number of "HIV infected", an estimate is One study reportedly showed that a group of young men who the only option since there is no way of knowing that figure. tested HIV positive had a higher death rate than a group that did Only a very small percentage is ever submitted to the antibody not test positive for HIV—and anybody reading it would test, falsely claimed to be an "HIV test", so it's a free-for-all to automatically assume that all those HIV-positive men died of estimate the numbers. If only the number of correctly diagnosed AIDS. However, the study did not show what actually caused the "full-blown AIDS" cases were reported, the figures would certain- deaths in the HIV-positive group. When this was investigated, it ly not cause much of a stir, let alone panic. turned out that there may have been a correlation in this case In a recent report from the USA, it was claimed that at leasta between an HIV-positive test and a slightly higher death rate, but third of all HIV-positive people do not even know that they are the same correlation did not show up for AIDS disease. Most of "infected"! If they do not know it themselves and have never those deaths were not caused by AIDS. This is a typical case of taken a test, then how could the reporter, or whatever source he statistical smoke and mirrors! used, know that these people are HIV positive? AIDS statistics is Furthermore, in Africa, the reporting of AIDS cases is based on full of these kinds of absurd and nonsensical assertions, but widely differing criteria in different areas or by different agencies. nobody seems to notice, let alone react. The fact that for AIDS cases there seems to be financial support, while for old illnesses there is not, also prompts those involved to AIDS Statistics in Africa report any illness as AIDS when it is simply a case of tuberculo- One of the few factual sources of African AIDS statistics is sis, malaria or another classic, endemic African illness. antibody (so-called HIV) tests in pregnant women at a few public Interestingly, tuberculosis and malaria, both very common in maternity centres. The test results Africa, have been included along with reportedly show that a very high per- many other diseases in the so-called centage is "HIV positive". Why? AIDS-defining illnesses, but any one of Because there are more than 60 differ- .. there are more than them can give a false-positive result in ent medical conditions that may give a . q the so-called HIV test. Smart, isn't it? false-positive test result, and among 60 different medical See the smoke and mirrors? these is pregnancy itself! Others are iti i According to official estimates by vaccinations and recent infections suc! conditions that may give a UNAIDS at the end of 2000, some 36.1 as hepatitis, malaria, tuberculosis and false-positive test result, million people worldwide were "infected" influenza. H and "living with HIV/AIDS". Of those, Considering that the test is performed and among these Is 25.3 million were said to live in sub- on pregnant women, when pregnancy is pregnancy itself! Saharan Africa. My question on this fig- one of the acknowledged causes for a ure is: how does anyone know? false-positive outcome, and considering In the Third World, AIDS can be diag- that the mostly poor and often malnour- nosed without the so-called HIV test, but ished women who come to these centres "HIV infection" cannot be—and it is a are likely to have been exposed to several of the other conditions fact that very few people are being tested, and those who have as well, it is predictable that a high percentage of them should test actually tested positive only make up an infinitesimal portion of positive. However, this does not mean that they are actually HIV the 36.1 million that UNAIDS claims are "living with HIV". So positive, and it certainly does not mean that they will ever develop how does UNAIDS make up the rest’? AIDS. Typically, no distinction is made between just being HIV Yet these evidently inaccurate and essentially meaningless test positive while healthy, and actually being ill with "full-blown" results are computed and applied to the entire African population, AIDS—as if it were the same thing! This is another of the many men as well as women, old and young, rich and poor—as if they smokescreens. The same source estimated(!) the number of new would apply equally to all, and as if they were proof of the inci- infections in 2000 to be 5.3 million globally. The estimated(!) dence of AIDS. Neither of these is the case, and anyone with number of total deaths from AIDS (observe the cumulative rudimentary knowledge of the tests and of statistics must be aware reporting) is said to be 21.8 million. of it. Yet this is how statistics on AIDS in Africa are manufac- Since we know that extremely few HIV tests are being per- tured and publicised. formed in Africa due to the high cost, we cannot help but ask Incidentally, apart from the more than 60 common causes for a what the basis is for these estimates. And even more so, since we false-positive test result, it has been proven that test results for know that the number of officially registered deaths from AIDS one and the same person may vary from one occasion to another, adds up to only a small fraction of the estimates propagated by even at the same laboratory, and even more so from one laborato- UNAIDS since the beginning of the "epidemic" nearly 20 years ry to another and from one country to another. The reason is that ago. And this is in spite of all the described reasons for inflating there is no "gold standard" for the test, meaning that it is arbitrary AIDS statistics in Africa. as to exactly where on the scale a positive result is registered. One argument offered by the statistical inflationists to explain And this kind of test is used to tell people that they will die of this discrepancy is that most AIDS deaths are reported as some- AIDS, and that they have to take obscenely expensive drugs that thing else, either because people do not want to admit that their will make them desperately ill and even kill them but can never __ relatives died of such a shameful disease or even that they did not cure them. know it was AIDS! But those who do the estimates apparently This is the background for South African President Mbeki's know—without any HIV testing. One wonders how. Purely on reluctance to offer these not only ineffective but fatally harmful hunch? drugs at the government's expense to pregnant women and new- Something does not add up here. conditions that may give a false-positive test result, and among these is pregnancy itself! 20 = NEXUS ... there are more than 60 different medical www.nexusmagazine.com AUGUST - SEPTEMBER 2002