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THE DISSIDENT CASE: POLITICS AND PUBLIC HEALTH POLICY to represent one and the same agent? For example, how is it pos- THE DISSIDENT CASE: POLITICS AND PUBLIC sible that HIV can induce the same antibodies which can be HEALTH POLICY recognised in a universal antibody test containing the identical The failures of the past 15 years are fairly and squarely affixed proteins? Since, as the molecular biologist Duesberg reminds us, to the five Montagnier and Gallo 1983-84 Science papers. That "there is a range, a small range, in which you can mutate around __ the titles of three of these papers contain the word "isolation", and without too much penalty, but as soon as you exceed it you are yet no such evidence was presented, must stand as a memorial to gone, and you are not HIV any longer, or a human any the demise of editorial integrity. The dissident cases—that HIV longer...then you are either dead or you are a monkey, or what does not exist (Eleopulos), or, if it does exist, it does not cause have you",* it is evident that whatever the "HIV DNA genome" AIDS (Eleopulos/Duesberg)—ultimately imply there will be dev- represents, it cannot be a virus. astating outcomes in terms of scientific credibility, including the If there exists certain RNA which is unique to a retrovirus HIV, failure of peer review, the demise of reputations of many experts then finding such RNA should prove infection. However, the and non-experts, the challenge to citizens’ trust in governmental, concordance between antibody and genetic tests varies between scientific and medical leaders, as well as an uncertain period of 40%-100%,'” and "HIV" RNA can be found in individuals not ignominy for the medical profession as a whole. Weaving a just infected with HIV. In responding to this scientific dilemma, the resolution through this maze of socio-medico-legal bedlam will HIV experts have proclaimed that "Plasma require the utmost perspicacity and tenacity viral load ["HIV" RNA] assays are designed from political leaders. for monitoring the effectiveness of antiretro- Perhaps there are already signs of quiet viral therapies and for measuring the quantity beginnings with the Americans' 1994 return of virus in patients with confirmed HIV infec- of the discovery of HIV to the French, fol- tion, not for the diagnosis of HIV infection. In the AIDS era lowed by Montagnier's most recent admis- y Their performance in patients who are not . sions in his 1997 interview. Perhaps it is also infected with HIV is unknown" and their use experts recognise that written in the faces of the Nobel Committee leads to "Misdiagnosis of HIV infection".'” i i " a and the stubborn absence of a Nobel Prize One manufacturer of PCR states that "The antibodies to the HIV: awarded for any of the 100,000 scientific Amplicor HIV-1 Monitor test is not intended specific proteins OCCUr | papers representing HIV/AIDS research. to be used as a screening test for HIV or as a A diagnostic test to confirm the presence of HIV where there is no HIV ~ Exceptionalism infection" (Roche Diagnostic Systems, 06/96, and in many more Over and above all the uncertainties sur- 13-08088-001). Fay Fv A rounding the HIV/AIDS debate, AIDS These being the case, the specificity of individuals than will science/medicine must stand as the most ever develop AIDS. "plasma viral load" is unknown and it is remarkable case of "exceptionalism" in difficult if not impossible to claim that istory. The funding it attracts far out- "HIV" RNA is the unique constituent of strips that justified by its prevalence and a specific retrovirus. How can one even economic impact.'” For example, over consider using such tests to monitor or the past 17 years, Australia has a cumu- diagnose a supposedly deadly virus ative total of 7,766 AIDS cases includ- when the "viral load" obtained varies ing 5,575 deaths.'-°° between zero and a million copies on the The big spenders are (in order) the same sample, depending on which tech- United States, France, the United nique or strain of HIV is involved? Kingdom, Germany and Italy. Their combined annual HIV/AIDS research udget amounts to US$1.8 billion for a On what basis, then, does "HIV" still exist? - Lessons from the past? The evidence for the existence of Gallo's "first human" retro- cumulative total of 761,572 AIDS patients (many of whom are virus (HL23V) was much stronger than that for HIV (see Part 1). dead). Of an additional $US20 million spent by the European *1? However, in 1980, the antibodies to the HL23V proteins Union in 1994-98, most "money goes to support travel and meet- were shown to occur following a large variety of common, non- ing costs rather than laboratory research".'* infectious factors and in far more humans than could ever have While thousands of dollars per patient are spent on HIV/AIDS developed leukaemia.'*'* Thus, from signifying that an "infec- research, only a few dollars are spent on heart disease, cancer, tious mode of transmission [of leukaemia] remains a real possibil- mental illness, suicide prevention or road trauma. ity in humans" and "infection with an oncovirus [retrovirus] may The funding paradox reaches epidemic, almost farcical propor- be extremely widespread",'* the "first" human retrovirus abruptly tions in developing countries where Western AIDS workers spend disappeared from the annals of science. At present no one, not their days dispensing advice and condoms to a population dying even Gallo, believes it existed. for want of potable water, adequate sanitation and nutrition, and However, had it not been for the efforts of the two research antibacterial, antitubercular and antimalarial medicines—in a groups at the National Cancer Institute and Sloan-Kettering, there word, dying of poverty. was the distinct possibility that by now the world would be facing Currently, the annual cost of anti-HIV drugs for one person is a pandemic of "HL23V disease" as well as a pandemic of "HIV about $US15,000 (greater than the entire health budget for many a disease". Third World village). With 650,000 to 900,000 HIV-positive In the AIDS era, experts recognise that antibodies to the "HIV- patients in the USA as of July 1996, it would take US$10 billion specific” proteins occur where there is no HIV and in many more _ to pay for drugs alone. This must be viewed against the World individuals than will ever develop AIDS. On what basis, then, Health Organization's estimate that by the year 2000 there will be does "HIV" still exist? 30 to 40 million HIV-infected people. and in many more individuals than will On what basis, then, does "HIV" still exist? - Lessons from the past? ee The evidence for the existence of Gallo's "first human" retro- virus (HL23V) was much stronger than that for HIV (see Part 1). *'? However, in 1980, the antibodies to the HL23V proteins were shown to occur following a large variety of common, non- infectious factors and in far more humans than could ever have developed leukaemia.'*'* Thus, from signifying that an "infec- tious mode of transmission [of leukaemia] remains a real possibil- ity in humans" and "infection with an oncovirus [retrovirus] may be extremely widespread",'* the "first" human retrovirus abruptly disappeared from the annals of science. At present no one, not even Gallo, believes it existed. However, had it not been for the efforts of the two research groups at the National Cancer Institute and Sloan-Kettering, there was the distinct possibility that by now the world would be facing a pandemic of "HL23V disease" as well as a pandemic of "HIV disease". In the AIDS era, experts recognise that antibodies to the "HIV- specific" proteins occur where there is no HIV and in many more individuals than will ever develop AIDS. On what basis, then, does "HIV" still exist? NEXUS - 39 ever develop AIDS. OCTOBER —- NOVEMBER 1999