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5. A solar-based weather, climate and greenhouse model * Most of the so-called global warming of the last hundred
The new approach needed which gives solar activity its proper —_-years is probably in fact in response to relative global cooling
place is summarised in figure 1, which is a diagrammatic repre- 100 years ago (caused by volcanic dust) and other natural
sentation showing the alternative theory of global warming. processes, many of which are influenced by solar activity.
Under this model (which does not consider volcanic activity at
this stage, although this is known to modulate some Sun-Earth 2. Assumptions and Theory
links), solar activity dominates the primary greenhouse gases and Current CO,-centred greenhouse computer models are funda-
carbon dioxide is a secondary greenhouse gas. mentally flawed for a number of reasons, such as:
Man's additions of CO, into the atmosphere are a small sec- * They ignore changes in water vapour which has a much high-
ond-order effect, since the extra CO, is reabsorbed into the sea er greenhouse importance than CO. Its average absolute green-
and biosphere at rates determined by temperatures which are house heating effect is at least twice as large as that of CO, and,
controlled by primary greenhouse gases and thereby largely by _ furthermore, it shows huge variations, much of which depend on
various aspects of solar activity. The fact that world tempera- solar activity (e.g., due to solar particles, UV radiation, etc.).
tures have risen (primarily due to external solar forcing and * They ignore the temperature-dependence of the dynamic
reductions in volcanic cooling) over the last hundred years, and interaction of CO, with sea water which covers 70 per cent of the
thereby have caused an increase in dynamic equilibrium levels of — world! This temperature-dependence of CO, absorptivity makes
CO,, while at the same time mankind's emissions of CO, have CO, a secondary greenhouse gas.
increased, makes reliable unravelling of effects difficult. * They ignore all important interactions of sea life, algae, etc.,
Some estimates of the actual size of any man-made effects with atmospheric CO.
have been made, and one study™ suggests that the combined ¢ They ignore the crucial role of the quasibiennial oscillation
man-made CO, and CH, effects may be up to one-third of of stratospheric winds (SQBO) in weather systems, which dis-
observed changes. However, a closer consideration of the solar- plays complex relationships with solar activity.
based model would probably substantially reduce this figure. * They ignore variations in stratospheric ozone, which are
strongly influenced by solar activity (both particle and UV).
Why COp>-centred greenhouse theory is inadequate * They ignore cosmic ray enhancement of efficiency of cloud
1. Facts nucleation, which is strongly influenced by solar (magnetic)
* None of the greenhouse campaigns' catastrophic predictions activity. 0
has ever come true, and all their forecasts have been revised
downwards. Editor's Notes:
* Satellite measurements do not show any global warming + Piers Corbyn's paper was presented during the Climate Changes
going on over the last few decades. Symposium, Bonn, Germany, 10-11 November 1997 (text can be
* There is nothing special happening in the world's weather found at