Nexus - 0606 - New Times Magazine-pages

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deBriefings 3. The size of solar-activity-based effects in determining the Solar Weather Technique (SWT) of long-range world weather and climate forecasting,'*'* which depends on the prediction of solar effects. Much has been reported on the effects of solar activity on These extremes can therefore be reasonably attributed to changes weather and climate on all time scales, and it has been well pro- in solar activity. Such temperature deviations from normal can pounded that the most important factor affecting climate over be 2°C over a season. Therefore, a random addition of such (in periods of decades is solar activity.*** In general, Sun-Earth principle, predictable) deviations over 25 years (100 seasons) weather relationships concern the high variability of particle, could easily be (using "random walk" addition and binomial sta- magnetic and some electromagnetic (e.g., UV) fluxes, rather than tistics): 2/ v100 = 0.2. Therefore, a 0.4°C change could reason- changes in visible radiance which show small variability.” ably be attributed from time to time to solar changes over 50 There are several observational estimates which show quanti- years. This is comparable to supposedly recent man-made CO, tatively that solar-based factors are more significant than CO- effects. centred greenhouse effects on various time scales. This argument for solar activity effects is even stronger when one considers the slow and extreme changes in solar activity 3.1 Solar-magnetic modulation of cosmic ray enhance- which appear to have caused major cooling in the "Maunder min- ment of cloud formation (time scales of year to decades) imum" period of the 17th century. It has been suggested (and tentatively shown) that extra-solar cosmic ray particles induce cloud droplet formation by ionising 4, Solar activity magnifiers water molecules. The higher solar magnetic fields present during There are a number of Solar Activity Magnifier (SAM) periods of high solar activity keep some of these cosmic rays out. ~— processes which magnify the effects of solar activity on the of the solar system and the Earth's atmosphere, thereby reducing atmosphere directly, by affecting the concentration of primary their cloud formation role which may result in an increase in greenhouse gases, and, indirectly, by various solar-enhanced temperature of the lower atmosphere or surface.” greenhouse mechanisms (SEGMs) of stratosphere-troposphere It has been estimated that the effect of this solar magnetic exchange.'*'*'° Mechanisms involved include particle and ultra- expulsion of cosmic rays by solar activity in the 1980s was to violet (UV) effects on ozone and many electrical effects on water reduce the production of cloud condensation nuclei and hence vapour, and dynamic exchanges. cloud cover by about three per cent, which corresponds to solar SAM processes also change the efficiency of frontal systems heating reduction of 1.5 Wm*. This matches the official estimate and the "world weather machine" which pumps heat from the of about 1.5 Wm’, of the effects of all man-made CO, added to equator to the poles. SAM processes have a decisive influence the atmosphere so far." on world temperatures. Dozens of potential mechanisms for Sun-Earth weather links 3.2 General solar effects, random accumulation (time and SAM processes are being researched in different parts of the scales of days and weeks to decades) and slow changes world.” This work clearly shows there are a number of channels (time scales of decades to centuries) of SAM processes and that it would be wrong to assume there is Many extremes of weather have been correctly predicted by just one main SAM process. The ozone UV effect magnifier SAM* Primary Greenhouse Gases and Processes process, for example, essentially H,0 concentration changes; O ,, N,O/NO, creation/destruction; involves competition between parti- nucleation mechanisms and stratosphere-troposphere exchange cle and UV (<209 nm) to modulate stratospheric O 3 concentration; which then, in turn, modulates flux Atmospheric of UV (>209 nm) into the lower Changing secondary atmosphere. This process is very efficiency greenhouse sensitive to stratospheric wind direc- SOLAR f "world gases CO2, tions,'* as are many SAM processes. SAM* Of Wali CH, (& second- ‘ : : f weather ‘ There is mounting evidence of the ACTIVITY TELE order feedback ; came ey ; machine" on H,O levels) importance of solar forcing operating (heat pump) Dynamic equilibrium on all time scales and that, in particu- lar, the world's most significant weather signals are probably "solar powered". Indeed, the Solar Weather Technique propounds, with increasing evidence, that the two most significant world weather sig- nals—namely, the quasibiennial oscillation in stratospheric wind (SQBO) and the El Nifio phenome- non (ENSO)—are driven or triggered by solar activity. *SAM = Solar Activity Magnifier Greenhouse feedback loop is not a runaway but a secondary The Decisive Influence of Solar Activity on Climate and Process. "Greenhouse" Gases Primary greenhouse gases such as H2O (which is over twice as important as CO,) and O, are essentially controlled by solar activity through Solar Man-made CO, "enhanced greenhouse" is a small, second-order add-on. Activity Magnification ("SAM") processes , and have a dominant effect on world temperatures. The fluctuations in secondary greenhouse gases (CO, and CH,) are then "imprisoned" by world temperatures which are decisively dependent on solar activity through the primary greenhouse gases. 12 - NEXUS *SAM = Solar Activity Magnifier OCTOBER —- NOVEMBER 1999