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deBriefings A SOLAR-BASED ALTERNATIVE TO THEORIES is ignored. This assumption is invalid for two reasons: OF GLOBAL WARMING (i) There is strong evidence that water vapour varies by large by Piers Corbyn, Weather Action, UK © 1997, 1999 amounts on all time scales.” : ; (ii) Water vapour content of the atmosphere, it appears, is 1. Summary strongly influenced by solar activity (such as changes in magnet- ic, particle, UV and X-ray effects) which varies by significant r “Nhe current "conventional" wisdom of man-made global _ factors on all time scales.” As evidence of the reliability of this warming is increasingly being called into question and is _ statement, it should be noted that knowledge of these effects is now clearly contradicted by reliable satellite measurements —_ already used in the Solar Weather Technique (SWT) of long- and which indicate that no warming has taken place in the lower — medium-range forecasting and in "solar factor enhancement" of atmosphere (troposphere) as a whole over the last 20 years. traditional, short-range forecasts"? which work largely by predict- Hitherto, critics of the models which are used to support the _ ing solar-activity-based changes in efficiency of water vapour conventional CO,-centred greenhouse wisdom have concentrated condensation. Ozone (O3) is also a powerful greenhouse gas. It on questioning the size of man-made effects rather than the fun- _ shows similarly high variability on all observed time scales and is damental assumptions that underlie those models. However, the _ very strongly influenced by solar activity.'® failure of conventional CO 5-centred models to explain the observed facts necessitates a new approach. 2.2 Primary and secondary greenhouse gases Here, a new approach is put forward: namely, that the funda- The facts about the relative sizes of greenhouse effects are mental assumption of the primacy of CO, as a greenhouse gas is _ enough to cast serious doubt on CO,-centred models. However, incorrect; and that, instead, natural forcing factors, especially examination of the temperature-dependence of CO, solar activity, are essentially responsible for temperature changes. _ concentration'"' shows the necessity to question the assumptions In particular, it is posited that solar activity and other natural fac- _ of traditional models. The new concepts of primary and sec- tors govern the concentration of a number of important primary —_ ondary greenhouse gases and the corresponding alternative solar- greenhouse gases (H,O and O3, for example) and these in turn —_ based model of climate development firmly relegate CO, into the control world temperatures, including sea temperatures. These category of a secondary greenhouse gas and can explain the fail- temperatures then determine the natural dynamic equilibrium _ures of traditional models to predict observations. level of CO, which is consequently relegated to the status of a Ice core measurements covering the last 250,000 years and secondary greenhouse gas. This means most of the small quanti- _ other observations'* show that CO, levels generally follow tem- ty of CO, emitted by mankind's activity gets rapidly re-absorbed, _ perature changes—not the other way around.” This leads to the and any temperature effect it might have is a "second order" _ inescapable conclusion that the non-CO , factors which determine effect of little import. world temperatures, and thereby affect the dynamic equilibrium levels of CO), are dominant compared to any independent, CO,- 2. The relative importances of different greenhouse gases induced greenhouse warming effect. There are numerous and mounting observational and theoreti- What, then, determines world temperatures? There are many cal reasons why traditional global climate models, used by the __ natural factors,'*'’ but the key mediators of world temperatures IPCC [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change] to make —_ must be the primary greenhouse gases: water vapour and ozone. claims of climate change, are failing.''' However, the core rea- This is partly because their Gls are greater than that of CO, but son for the failures of these models is now becoming clear: also, and more fundamentally, because their equilibrium levels namely, they misunderstand the status of carbon dioxide as a _are dictated by external forcing factors, especially solar activity, greenhouse gas and overestimate its effects. not temperatures. CO, is a secondary greenhouse gas because its concentration is mainly controlled by temperature. (For example, 2.1 The sizes of greenhouse effects an increase in temperature reduces the absorptivity of the CO, by Water vapour (HO), ozone (03), carbon dioxide (CO,), __ the oceans and results in an increase in atmospheric concentra- methane (CH,) and various oxides of nitrogen are all greenhouse __ tion, and a fall in temperature has the opposite effect.) gases which, by absorption of electromagnetic radiation and re- Primary greenhouse gases such as water vapour have more emission at different wavelengths, cause "greenhouse warming". influence on world temperatures in the long run than secondary The relative importance of these gases on different time scales is | greenhouse gases, such as CO3, because concentrations of the determined not by their absolute average effects—which, if con- _ former are determined primarily by external, independent forcing stant, will have no bearing on climate change—but by the varia- factors, whereas the concentration of the latter is controlled pri- tion of their heating effects, here termed their "greenhouse impor- __ marily by temperatures through their effect on dynamic absorp- tance" (GI). tion rates. The absolute greenhouse effect of water vapour is twice as Of course, in general terms, the detailed developments of con- large as that of CO, in its long-term, average, greenhouse effect centration of some primary as well as secondary greenhouse (IPCC report), but more importantly it varies hugely in concen- _ gases are affected both by external forcing as well as by tempera- tration in time and space. This means that the greenhouse effects ture-dependent feedback mechanisms. For primary greenhouse of HO are much more important than greenhouse effects of CO). __ gases such as O, and H,0, external factors (especially solar forc- However, traditional CO,-centred models assume that water —_ ing) are dominant, whereas for secondary greenhouse gases, vapour variation is small on the time scales considered, and so it _ especially CO}, temperature is dominant. A SOLAR-BASED ALTERNATIVE TO THEORIES OF GLOBAL WARMING by Piers Corbyn, Weather Action, UK © 1997, 1999 NEXUS - 11 OCTOBER — NOVEMBER 1999