Nexus - 0505 - New Times Magazine-pages

Page Content (OCR)

California, I walk into a supermarket and I he Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a| get lettuce, fresh vegetables, any day of the Washington, DC, think-tank, held a conference on 2 June| Ye". Seven days ago they were in a field in 1998 titled "The Y2K Crisis: A Global Ticking Time Bomb".| vi rrac NewYork To complete our Y2K coverage for now, the following is an edited) ~ We know the switches on the railroads transcript of a conference address given by Mr Alan Simpson On) are faulty. We know because of mergers the subject of "Global Food Chains". He is introduced by the| that even today many of the major corpora- conference co-chairman, Mr Arnaud de Borchgrave, director of| 100s") {he railroad business dont know the CSIS Global Organized Crime Project. were te rallway stop Is. . When you move this way through, come —Editor| 2000 you could have a scenario—and when you look at this, it's the Soviet Union in the 1980s—where there's plentiful supply of food in the fields, but Arnaud de Borchgrave: Alan Simpson has conducted briefings you can't get it from the fields to the towns to feed the population. and presentations in over 60 countries, and since 1995 this This is not a way-out, whacko scenario. This is for real. England-born computer and communications advanced technolo- Back to the food chain. When you have a look at it, it's a three- gist has been a leading spokesman on international year 2000 dimensional model. You've got the governments, the major issues. banks, the major corporations, medium and small businesses and After 10 years of service with Royal Air Force Intelligence in = mom-and-pop operations. Year 2000 is going to affect this verti- the UK, where he specialised in electronic warfare, Mr Simpson cal food chain differently at different levels. formed Proloc Computers and Cambridge Advanced Technology. Governments have got the resources, but they're sitting around. He was a pioneer in advanced communications networks. As We are telling each other we're going to be compliant. Yeah, we president of Satellite Communications Limited, he was one of the trust the Pentagon. Yeah, yeah. They're going to be compliant. early birds in global satellite communications in television, and When we look at the major corporations and the banks, they have was awarded nine US Government contracts for satellite links to the resources and the manpower to correct the problem. Way at US embassies. the bottom, mom and pop. They can go to manual. Most small Mr Simpson also helped develop USIA's much-acclaimed businesses can switch their computers off and use pen and pad WorldNet during the Reagan administration. He has been a con- and go to manual. sultant to CNN, BBC, VOA and 13 start-up networks. Since But in the middle they have the most problems. And currently, 1995, Mr Simpson added the development of TV news programs the medium and larger small businesses are being totally neglect- to his activities, producing and hosting Wildfire and Countdown ed with information on year 2000. We focused on the banks. We 2000. Today he will tell us about the Y2K connectivity problem, or what he calls "the global food chain". Alan Simpson: Thank you, Arnaud. U i The year 2000 problem is a global problem. One of the things We don t scream and shout this we've heard said here today, which is spoken a lot in the media, is out because we don't want the that the United States is ahead of the rest of the world. Correct. . But also it's more dependent on technology than the rest of the world to know this. world. So while we are ahead in awareness, the effects will be more pronounced here than anywhere else in any country. Some Third World countries won't even notice it. Other Third World countries, because they use hand-me-down computers from the West, will come to a grinding halt. Arnaud de Borchgrave: Alan Simpson has conducted briefings and presentations in over 60 countries, and since 1995 this England-born computer and communications advanced technolo- gist has been a leading spokesman on international year 2000 issues. After 10 years of service with Royal Air Force Intelligence in the UK, where he specialised in electronic warfare, Mr Simpson formed Proloc Computers and Cambridge Advanced Technology. He was a pioneer in advanced communications networks. As president of Satellite Communications Limited, he was one of the early birds in global satellite communications in television, and was awarded nine US Government contracts for satellite links to US embassies. Mr Simpson also helped develop USIA's much-acclaimed WorldNet during the Reagan administration. He has been a con- sultant to CNN, BBC, VOA and 13 start-up networks. Since 1995, Mr Simpson added the development of TV news programs to his activities, producing and hosting Wildfire and Countdown 2000. Today he will tell us about the Y2K connectivity problem, or what he calls "the global food chain". Alan Simpson: Thank you, Arnaud. The year 2000 problem is a global problem. One of the things we've heard said here today, which is spoken a lot in the media, is that the United States is ahead of the rest of the world. Correct. But also it's more dependent on technology than the rest of the world. So while we are ahead in awareness, the effects will be more pronounced here than anywhere else in any country. Some Third World countries won't even notice it. Other Third World countries, because they use hand-me-down computers from the West, will come to a grinding halt. The food chain...I'm not speaking about food. The real title should be "the global supply communications and logistics web". But that puts people to sleep, so we call it "the food chain" and then you think you're getting a cooking program. As an aside from that, since we've been doing this now for about three months, a lot of farmers have contacted me saying, "Are you talking about the real food chain?" And in the first days I said, "No, no, no. We're talking about the relationship between government, major corporations, small corporations and the com- munications infrastructure." "Oh," said they. "Well, we've got a problem." A few weeks ago we started looking at this, and it was Bruce Webster [from Object Systems Group] who mentioned in one of his presentations the could-be famine in the United States in 2000. And, like most of you here, I thought, "Rubbish, rubbish!"—until we started looking at the infrastructure and started the wildfire scenarios on "What if?". And looking at New York and focused on Wall Street. We focused on General Motors. We have forgotten about the 23 million small and medium businesses that make up the food chain that supplies General Motors. So, what have they been sold? Over the '80s they have been sold "just in time". You don't hold stocks. You've all seen the Federal Express ad: all the workers just stand around, and up comes the Fed Ex truck just in time. Most of industry today is waiting for UPS, Fed Ex or someone to come in early, first thing in the morning, to give them work, and they work that day. They don't have stocks. We don't have a stock of strategic commercial materials to keep the country running for one or two months. Everything is just in time: straight out of the ground—they advance shipping and air, communications—straight into the fac- tories. We know that is not going to work. We know! This is not a doomsayer! We can even tell you the model numbers on the switchers that won't work in the telecommunications network. We can tell you NEXUS - 17 We don't scream and shout this out because we don't want the world to know this. AUGUST - SEPTEMBER 1998