Nexus - 0505 - New Times Magazine-pages

Page Content (OCR)

non-compliant by then. Many industrial machines contain "embedded systems"—computer chips that are literally embedded within some larger piece of equipment such as in power stations, oil refineries, telephone switches, burglar alarms, emergency room equipment, air traffic control systems, military defence gear and chemical plants, among others. executive said, would have caused an explosion. "That was great news," de Jager said. "Because they checked, there will be no explosion. They're replacing the chips." "De Jager worries about the companies that are not checking," Hick wrote.’ Conclusion No. 1: If we lived in a community with one or more chemical plants, we would be asking our local government to hold public hearings on the Y2K problem, seeking public assurances from local plant managers that they really have this problem under control. What written plans do they have for assessing these problems, and how large a budget have they com- mitted to solving them? What progress can they demonstrate? Does the plant manager have sufficient confidence in the plant's safety systems to be at the plant with his or her family at mid- night, December 31, 1999, to celebrate the new year? seewaw wasweseeweee Pettey re rane Se eaten Vee Be ut we taeeewae EMBEDDED COMPUTER CHIPS to hold public hearings on the Y2K problem, seeking public y the year 2000 there will be an estimated 25 billion embed- assurances from local plant managers that they really have this ded systems, according to the Gartner Group which advertises problem under control. What written plans do they have for itself as the world's foremost authority on information assessing these problems, and how large a budget have they com- technology.’ By Gartner Group's estimate, two-tenths of one per — mitted to solving them? What progress can they demonstrate? cent of these 25 billion embedded systems will be non-compliant.‘ Does the plant manager have sufficient confidence in the plant's Two-tenths of one per cent of 25 billion is 50 million. Therefore safety systems to be at the plant with his or her family at mid- the problem, according to the Gartner Group, is to identify and night, December 31, 1999, to celebrate the new year? replace those 50 million non-compliant embedded systems in the next 500 days. To solve this problem, someone would have to | PROGRESS REPORT identify, replace and test about 100,000 chips each day between N* let's return to the mainframe problem. Because non-com- now and December 31, 1999. Does the US have enough techni- pliant computers could harm a company's financial picture cians to identify, replace and test 100,000 chips each day? It (up to and including bankruptcy), on January 12, 1998 the US seems unlikely. federal Securities and Exchange These embedded systems tend to Commission (SEC) issued "SEC Staff be in the nation's core infrastructure: Legal Bulletin No. 5" which requires in the water, sewage and electrical ..Non-compliant computer chips publicly held companies to report utilities, in railroads and other trans- are also embedded in equipment their progress towards solving their portation systems, in hospitals, in Y2K problems. police and fire services, in the such as photocopiers, telephones, On June 10, 1998 Steve Hock, defence infrastructure, and in petro- elevators, traffic lights, electric president of Triaxsys Research in chemical and other manufacturing Missoula, Montana, testified before plants. But non-compliant computer generating plants and the Senate Banking, Housing and nuclear missiles... Urban Affairs Committee that his company had examined the SEC fil- chips are also embedded in equip- ment such as photocopiers, tele- phones, elevators, traffic lights, elec- ings of America's 250 largest corpora- tric generating plants and nuclear tions. missiles, and they all need to be fixed Mr Hock told the Senate that 114 of or replaced. the 250 companies had filed no Y2K information with the SEC. Byte magazine, a technical computer journal, calls Y2K "a cri- Of the 136 companies that have filed Y2K information, 101 sis without precedent in human history". It recently reported: reported their progress on the assessment phase of the problem. "One commonly cited problem is associated with gadgets that Of these 101, 60 per cent revealed that they have not yet complet- monitor periodic maintenance. When the clock strikes 12 mid- ed their assessments of the Y2K problem. night on New Year's Eve, 2000, these devices might think it's Mr Hock testified that 36 companies reported their estimated been 99 years since their last maintenance, realize that's too long Y2K project costs and how much they had so far spent. The aver- for safe operation, and shut down."* age company reported having spent 21 per cent of the expected Fortune magazine calls it "the biggest screw-up of the computer __ total costs of Y2K fixes. Mr Hock concluded: "[The] data show age" and says it may cost US$1 trillion to fix. (The Vietnam War remarkably little progress by the largest US companies in address- cost half that much—US$500 billion.) ing the year 2000 problem. Most of the work has been com- The Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI)—a trade associa- pressed into an extremely tight window of time. Given the infor- tion for electric utility companies—says the Y2K problem will mation technology industry's long history of failure to complete begin to disrupt businesses, including electric utilities, a year large-scale system conversion projects on time, this is cause for before the new century begins. "Major disruptions in technical serious concern."” and business operations could begin as early as January 1, 1999. The New York Federal Reserve Bank has said that it will take Nearly every industry will be affected," EPRI says.’ more than a year for a large corporation to test its computers for Virginia Hick, who writes a column called "Technology and Y2K compliance after all their software has been fixed."” This You" for the St Louis Post-Dispatch, recently interviewed Peter means that all fixes must be completed by September or October de Jager, a well-known Y2K consultant to industry. Here is what of 1998 so testing can begin in time. But many large corporations Hick wrote: are still at the stage of assessing the problem, and it's now late "...de Jager talked recently with an executive of a company that June [at the time of writing]. makes a volatile gas—he would not identify the company more How big is the task for a complex corporation? State Farm specifically—who told de Jager how his plant discovered the seri- Insurance—a company that believes it is on top of the Y2K prob- ousness of faulty embedded chips. lem—began working on the problem in 1989 and found that it had "The plant found a chip that failed when the date was moved 70 million lines of computer code to convert, 475,000 data pro- forward. When the chip failed, it shut off a valve that would have cessing items, more than 2,000 third-party software programs, shut down the cooling system. A cooling system shutdown, the 900 shared electronic files, plus miscellaneous telephone and 14 = NEXUS AUGUST - SEPTEMBER 1998