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through 1949, there were only eight years Table 1: Earthquakes of Magnitude 6 Zemlya. Since 9th November 1962, all in which there were over 100 earthquakes or Greater USA nuclear tests have been conducted of M>=6. This entire cluster of eight was i 299:194 1959-19) 0 underground at the Nevada test site. found between 1931 and 1941. The high- tan see _ 2 In 1962, a large number of nuclear tests est number was 182 in 1934, and this com- | 6s5t0<7.0 1110 1465 7 were carried out (98.by the USA, 44 by the pared to a low of 17 in 1904. oe = - | USSR) in anticipation of a halt to above- >8.0 101 30 =6. Again, this compares to only century because of improved global com- 1975. And the Chinese did likewise, test- eight years for the first 50 years of this cen- munications and seismograph instrumenta- ing some 16 times above ground at the Lop tury. The highest number was 214 in 1957, tion. A dramatic increase in the number of Nor test site in Sinkiang Province until while the lowest was 78 in 1962. It is recording stations has also occurred. For 1975. Tests are now limited to a maximum interesting to note that the years 1959 and example, about 350 seismograph stations yield of 150 KT under terms of the 1960 were relatively free of nuclear tests. were operating in 1931, whereas today Threshold Test Ban Treaty signed by Coincidentally, two years later, the number _ there are over 3,000 active stations around President Richard M. Nixon and Soviet of earthquakes M>=6 dropped to only 78 in the world. It is generally conceded, how- Premier Leonid Brezhnev in Moscow on 1962 and 83 in 1963. These earthquake ever, that the largest earthquakes have been 3rd July 1974. The ban did not take effect totals were the lowest for any given year recorded relatively consistently since 1900, until 31st March 1976, and remains unrati- covering the entire second half of this cen- and these factors could have only a small fied by the US Senate. Testing was tury. effect on the number of events located per stopped completely in 1959 and 1960, and When the M>=6 earthquakes are divided year for magnitudes above 6.0. the USSR unilaterally stopped testing dur- into groups, another trend becomes evident. In conclusion, since 1950 the trend of the ing a self-imposed moratorium for 19 From 1900 through 1949, there was a total earthquakes M>=6 is as follows. There months between July 1985 to February of 101 earthquakes of M>=8, with a yearly have been 1,500 more in the last half of 1987. During that time, the USA conduet- maximum of 7 in 1906. Those 1906 earth- this century compared to the first half, and ed 26 nuclear tests. Since 1963, nuclear quakes included the famous San Francisco the average per year has doubled. Further, test sites by the five major powers have earthquake of 18th/19th April, at M8.3, the increase has been most dramatic in the essentially been confined to the following which killed over 400 people. But from M6.0 to 6,5 range, while a dramatic drop is _ locations: 1950 through 1988, a total of only 30 earth- seen in earthquakes of M>7.0. The ques- quakes of M>=8 were recorded. The most tion remains as to whether this trend will in any given year since 1949 were four, continue. . SC DS | ce en i ee = USA & UK: New: Test Site 37N 116 W 2844 1465 699 30 7 1a =6 earthquakes are divided year for magnitudes above 6.0. into groups, another trend becomes evident. In conclusion, since 1950 the trend of the From 1900 through 1949, there was a total earthquakes M>=6 is as follows. There of 101 earthquakes of M>=8, with a yearly have been 1,500 more in the last half of maximum of 7 in 1906. Those 1906 earth- this century compared to the first half, and quakes included the famous San Francisco the average per year has doubled. Further, earthquake of 18th/19th April, at M8.3, the increase has been most dramatic in the which killed over 400 people. But from M6.0 to 6,5 range, while a dramatic drop is 1950 through 1988, a total of only 30 earth- seen in earthquakes of M>7.0. The ques- quakes of M>=8 were recorded. The most tion remains as to whether this trend will in any given year since 1949 were four, continue. back in 1950. This included the great Indian earthquake of 15th August, at M8.7, Patterns of Nuclear Testing, 1945 to which killed over 1,500 people. 1989 Thus, for the first half of this century, The table below compiles the respective 101 earthquakes of M>=8 were recorded, summary totals of nuclear explosions by as compared to only 30 of such earthquakes country since 1945. The USA and USSR for the second half of the century. And for account for about 87% of the total. the last 10 years there have been only three 5 earthquakes M>=8 recorded. The last was i —, ly cy COREY, on 20th October 1986 when an M8.3 carth- ie ; quake struck the Kermadec Islands of the eo ee ee South Pacific. This quake happened just 1945-1962: 304 166 s 2 0 0 four days after the USA exploded a 20- 150-KT bomb in Nevada on 16th October. Totals: so 617 171 4192 It appears, therefore, that given such an Grand Total: 1795 increase in earthquakes of M>=6 since 1950, and a decrease in earthquakes of Nuclear testing began in earnest in 1951 M>=8, the observed increase must have when the USA exploded 16 bombs. They occurred in between the two magnitude later tested 77 times in 1958, half in the ranges. In fact, the increase has mostly Pacific and about half at the Nevada test occurred in the M6.0 to 6.5 range, as seen site. In 1962, a record of 98 USA bomb in Table 1. The average number in this tests occurred, including a 600-KT bomb range per year has tripled since 1950, from _ from a Polaris A2 rocket in the Pacific. 24 to 72, as compared to earthquakes The largest nuclear test explosion con- between M6.5 to <7.0. The numbers for ducted by the USA was a 15-megaton earthquakes M>=7 have dropped since (MT) bomb detonated at Bikini Atoll, 1950 relative to the first half of the century. Marshall Islands, on 28th February 1954. There were 1,145 (an average of 22 per The largest nuclear test by any country is year) from 1900 to 1949, and only 699 believed to have been a S8-MT bomb deto- (average of 17 per year) from 1950 to nated by the USSR on 30th October 1961 1988. above the high Arctic island of Novaya 1963-1988: 629 451 165 1% 32 1 seen in carthquakes of M>7.0. The ques- tion remains as to whether this trend will Table 3: continue. USA & UK: Nevada Test Site a7N 116 W (65 miles NW of Las Vegas) Patterns of Nuclear Testing, 1945 to France: Mururoa,Fangatauta Atoll 22S 139W (720 miles SE of Tanai, in Tuamotu archipelago) China: Lop Nor, Sinkiang Provinca 41. N 88E USSR: 1, Semipatatinsk, * 49N 78E Kazakhistan 2. Novaya Zemlya Island 73N SSE Arctic Ocean 3. Ural Mountains, EON 56E near Serov 4, Siberia, GIN 112E nomh Lake Baykal 1989 The table below compiles the respective summary totals of nuclear explosions by country since 1945. The USA and USSR account for about 87% of the total. Table 2: Total Nuclear Tests by Country, __ 1945 to 1988 Years _USA USSR Fra. UK Chin _tngia The French testing site is very close to eh eee = — ; E, m3 me ° the Tropic of Capricorn (23.5°S Lat.) and is ' the only nuclear test site south of the equa- Totals: 993 617 1714132 tor. The Soviet Arctic site, the Novaya Grand Total: 1795 Zemlya Islands, is the only nuclear test site north of the Arctic Circle (66.5°N Lat.) and Nuclear testing began in earnest in 1951 is presently used only once or twice per when the USA exploded 16 bombs. They year. However, from 1958 through 1963 it later tested 77 times in 1958, half in the was the main Soviet nuclear test site. The Pacific and about half at the Nevada test site was last used on 4th December 1988 site. In 1962, a record of 98 USA bomb when the USSR exploded a nuclear bomb tests occurred, including a 600-KT bomb between 20-150 KT. Three days later, on from a Polaris A2 rocket in the Pacific. 7th December, the Soviet Armenian earth- The largest nuclear test explosion con- quake struck, registering M6.9 and killing ducted by the USA was a 15-megaton upwards of 60,000 people, injuring 13,000 (MT) bomb detonated at Bikini Atoll, and leaving half a million people homeless. Marshall Islands, on 28th February 1954. Another of these dangerous coincidences. The largest nuclear test by any country is The total nuclear tests by all countries believed to have been a 58-MT bomb deto- since 1945 is 1,795. The average for the nated by the USSR on 30th October 1961 43.5-year period is one test every eight to above the high Arctic island of Novaya nine days. If the period 1963 through 1988 Patterns of Nuclear Testing, 1945 to 1989 The table below compiles the respective summary totals of nuclear explosions by country since 1945. The USA and USSR account for about 87% of the total. 73N €ON 165 2 oO 18 «32 41° 32 933 617 171 12 ¢ NEXUS OCTOBER - NOVEMBER 1995