Nexus - 0225 - New Times Magazine-pages

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through/... For storms will rage and oceans roar/... A fiery and unaffected by additional stations. Well, the lowest increase I Dragon will cross the sky/ Six times before this Earth shall die/... found was 48 per cent, and the highest was 238 per cent! "For seven days and seven nights man will watch this awesome I was not satisfied with this, so I called upon some leading sight. The tides will rise beyond their ken/ To bite away the Australian seismologists to ask them how to filter out the increase shores, and then/ The mountains will begin to roar/ And earth- in shake numbers caused simply by having more detectors with quakes split the plain to shore. increased sensitivities. They told me that taking the shake num- "And flooding waters, rushing in/ Will flood the lands with such —_ bers having a magnitude of, say, Richter 5.0 to 5.5 and above a din/ That mankind cowers in muddy fen/ And snarls about his would yield a closer to correct count, because anything of that fellow men. magnitude would be picked up by the required 10 stations any- "He bares his teeth and fights and kills/ And secrets food in where on the globe. When I tried their suggestion, the increase secret hills. And ugly in his fear, he lies/ To kill marauders, figures were around a significant 68 per cent. thieves and spies... I also discovered there is an "...The oceans rise to mount the shore./ increasing number of strong earth- And lands will crack and rend anew..." 7 quakes occurring deeper than 70 The resulting plots showed a kilometres, which may indicate a HISTORIC EARTHQUAKE DATA long cycle of about 350 years ff previously unknown set of tectonic When I began to analyse the earth- - 4 - plate movements at depth. The quake data on the 910,000 recorded which is to reach a peak in the Kobe shake was the result of a new shakes which is stored at the USGS’ in | immediate future. This means § and more destructive breed of quake Denver, Colorado, I quickly realised that - 4 which has up and down (or vertical the public (not the military) quake data- ’ there will be a period of component) motions. Very few of bases suffered from a lack of accurate | MINIMUM sunspot numbers and the Japanese or US buildings are data before 1960, and, in fact, that the * Boon built to resist vertical component most reliable data was from 1980 to now maximum earthquake damage. shakes. They are all built for side- because of the addition of more civilian ways (or horizontal component) seismological stations of greater sensitivi- shakes. ty. According to a recent report from You can see by Chart No. 2 that one of three things has Osaka University, almost all of the modern Japanese buildings and occurred: (a) either a 947 per cent increase in earthquakes has _ bridges are designed to stand up against horizontal forces of 20 to occurred globally, or (b) 947 per cent more shakes have been 30 per cent of their weight, while the same structures are only recorded due to the increased number of, and more sensitive, mon- _ built to withstand half as much movement vertically. ofatiana oat un cinaa 10KN ne fa\ that thaca hac haan a cia ty. You can see by Chart No. 2 that one of three things has occurred: (a) either a 947 per cent increase in earthquakes has occurred globally, or (b) 947 per cent more shakes have been recorded due to the increased number of, and more sensitive, mon- itoring stations set up since 1960, or (c) that there has been a sig- nificant increase in earthquakes as well as an increase in detection equipment, and that somewhere in between lies the actual rate of increase. However, the bottom line can be found by reading newspapers over the last ten years for reports of earthquake dam- age in the more densely populated areas. Using this method, the increase in serious quakes has been at least 60 per cent over the last decade, while the damage bills are astronomical ones measur- ing in the hundreds of billions of US dollars. Now the explanation of increased detection abilities would explain a lot of the increase—but not all. I took the liberty of get- ting regional data from Japan, Alaska, Canada and the Middle East to determine if there was an increase in shake numbers between 1960 and 1994 from their local records which are very constant oe os nificant i increase in earthquakes as well as an increase in detection THE MYSTERIES OF BUREAUCRACY equipment, and that somewhere in between lies the actual rate of Just a month after the Kobe earthquake, when over 5,000 people increase. However, the bottom line can be found by reading _ had died in the latest of a growing number of serious earthquakes, newspapers over the last ten years for reports of earthquake dam- —_an astounding announcement was made in Washington. The fed- age in the more densely populated areas. Using this method, the eral agency which has maintained large databases on earthquake increase in serious quakes has been at least 60 per cent over the phenomena and which constantly monitors the planet for quake last decade, while the damage bills are astronomical ones measur- _ patterns and occurrences is to be closed down this year! ing in the hundreds of billions of US dollars. The well-known US Geological Survey is to be shut at the onset Now the explanation of increased detection abilities would of what appears to be a massive increase in devastating quakes. explain a lot of the increase—but not all. I took the liberty of get- | The USGS rapidly transmits earthquake locations and magnitudes ting regional data from Japan, Alaska, Canada and the Middle East to emergency response groups, transportation officials, municipal to determine if there was an increase in shake numbers between _ organisations and to the news media. They help to anticipate 1960 and 1994 from their local records which are very constant magjor quakes and give early warnings when they are able, But then, who needs to know all that stuff any- way? Right? "Let's just shut them down!” Chart No. 3: Sunspots, 1749-1993 Odd, isn't it? Especially so, when you consider a report in a January 1995 issue of the science journal, Nature, which stated 200 that seismologists were concerned that ee ep vanewe ne ery we eye 180 southern California could be at risk from 160 far more devastating earthquakes than pre- 140 viously thought. 120 It is also odd when you consider that, 100 just last month, teams of US scientists were 80 spotted flying in formations around the 60 areas of Los Angeles to the south and over 40 the Ventura Basin in those nifty black heli- copters, frantically trying to map the myri- ad new fault-lines that they have 'suddenly' SHSLSssrgaseagegaacaceaanas | Vee f these black LEE ERR OGHGOHOHDDHODGDDARAAHRARAAAD towever, the presence of these blac — TTT TT Ladhadihethethanhetinathes helicopters has triggered a rather sobering 20 Chart No. 3: Sunspots, 1749-1993 1 14 © NEXUS APRIL - MAY 1995