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Greenhouse or ICE AGE? a LETS LOOK AT THE ‘GREENHOUSE EFFECT’ First, whatare the actual temperature changes? In January 1989, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) carried out a survey of weather trends in the US from 1895 to 1987. The only prediction they were prepared to make was towards cooler, drier WHO IS THE SCIENTIST THAT FIRST SUPPORTED GLOBAL WARMING? Most of the “proof” of global warming comes fromacomputer model made by James Hansen, which was based on Mioseyev's model. Some of Hansen’s own colleagues believe that he lacks a scientific basis, for instance ... Dr Patrick Michaels, Professor of Environmental Sciences at the University of Virginia and a member of the executive board of the American Association of State Climatologists, had this to say when asked about the reliability of Hansen’s data and how he arrived at his conclusions. “When Jim (Hansen) got in front of Congress, what he did is he compared January through May temperatures to annual averages for the fast hundred years. That's essentially like comparing apples and oranges, because there is going tobe greater variability in samples of less than a year compared to that of an entire year ...” hy are government and \ \ / non-government groups rushing to outdo each other in urging drastic action to cater for global warming, when there is not conclusive evidence to show. that “greenhouse” gases will cause global warming? In the 1960’s the popular theory concerning the future climate of the earth was that we were on the brink of anice age. Surely, some of these effects that led scientists to believe this theory still exist today? The Greenhouse Effect on its own may tend to warm the atmosphere, but what about all the other factors that can effect our climate? Theinteresting thing to realiseis, there is much uncertainty among climatologists and geophysicists about future climate changes. Scientific American, July 1990 states “Some of the worlds’ eminent authorities on the atmosphere recently hurled verbal brickbats at one another in the pages of the prestigious journal “Science”. Their charges of “junk science” and “science by consensus” reflect the acrimonious nature of the debate within the science community. Some members of the National Academy’ of Sciences, including one of its former presidents, charge that policymakers are being induced to take unwise actions on the basis of uncertain scientific evidence.” conditions. Most reports supporting global warming seem to show an overall rise in annual surface air tem- peratures of 0.5 C since 1850. During this period the temperatures actually increase, decrease for a while, then increase again. One criticism of these measurements is that they ignore the effects of urban warming, as many of the measurements were taken near cities. Two Arizona State University researchers found when they studied weather data recorded since 1920in small towns throughout the US, that the average temperature has actually declined by 0.5 C. Infact any temperature increases are more likely to represent climate recovery following the cooling of the Little Ice Age, which peaked in the early 1800's. We may simply be returning to the warmer conditions that were naturally present during the 13th Century, when there was virtually no global industrialisation. including one of its 47,747 dents, charge that > a” +27 "4° are being induced to a. 3_ Ma ctions on the basis of at gt at a J a ntific evidence.” (SITTTTTTT LLi THE CO: LEVELS Over the past 160 million years evidence taken from deep ice cores has shown natural large fluctuations in CQz levels. It also shows that temperatures vary with this. So there er Catherine Simons B.Sc.