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Being Trendy 57 stars, or decent planets, or the likelihood of intelligence. SETI enthusiasts squelch interstellar travel, species life span, and contact cross section. They are all pessimists at some level.'° New knowledge, claimed Rood and Trefil, has greatly reduced our freedom to choose any numbers we like for terms in the Drake equation. Yet they admitted that there are too many parameters and ways of treating physical phenomena to place complete faith in one calculation." Given our lack of data for some factors, we should be cautious about jumping to conclusions. Mathematical models may be suggestive, even indicative. Without confirmation in the real world, they are not proof. Probability and analogy are not the only tools employed in this debate. Some disputants have relied on straight-line projections of current trends in our own civilization, particularly the future courses of scientific and technological advance. Yet, past projections of such developments in human societies have been woefully inadequate, often failing to foresee major changes. There is no reason to think that current humans have overcome that limitation. All visions of more advanced civilizations that rely on the exten- sion of uninterrupted trends must be regarded with suspicion. As we will see later, this could have intriguing implications for the probability of contact and for its possible consequences. Being Trendy