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335 Science is the best defense against believing what we want to. —Jack Cohen and Ian Stewart, 2002° Among those who believe that extraterrestrial intelligence exists, and among those who deny it, many have reached conclusions that go well beyond the evidence. In both cases, some of the most extreme spokes- persons have damaged the credibility of their arguments by making exag- gerated claims. We may need to remind ourselves of the distinction between what is knowable at any particular moment in our history and what is not. As Crowe put it, the ways of the universe and of God are more difficult to discern than most inhabitants of our planet have been willing to recognize.° We are new arrivals on the interstellar scene. Our knowledge of the cosmos is incomplete; our ability to understand it is limited. We have much to learn. Our current conceptions of the universe will change; our ideas of what to look for will continue to evolve. There remain many opportunities for innovative work, by social scien- tists as well as their hard science counterparts. Although the physical and biological sciences are essential to this quest, they cannot answer every question about the probability of success, or its consequences. Discovery is most likely when we deploy a new capability or employ a new strategy, or invent better ways of analyzing the data we have. Powerful new astronomical instruments, including orbiting observatories, may produce a flurry of astronomical discoveries during the coming decade; some may influence our thinking about extraterrestrial civilizations. However, we may never have comprehensive means of searching; we may never be omniscient. In the meantime, intellectual honesty requires us to distinguish between what is proven and what is not. We should be particularly suspicious of one-factor analyses and of projections that foresee continued uniform behavior by intelligent beings, such as maintaining permanent beacons or relentlessly expanding through the Galaxy. We cannot accept the opinion of any distinguished person as the final word; there are no authorities on extraterrestrial intelligence until it is found. There is no place for scientific priesthoods, or any other form of elitism that excludes the rest of us. Faith is the substance of things hoped for, the evidence of things not seen. —Saint Paul’ Belief, Expectation, and Fact Going Beyond the Evidence Belief, Expectation, and Fact