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What Is Missing Astronomers and others who have speculated about the consequences of indirect contact have enjoyed considerable exposure in academic and popular nonfiction literature. The alternative point of view is poorly rep- resented outside science fiction; we lack comparable nonfiction studies of direct contact with extraterrestrial civilizations. It is time to correct this imbalance, drawing on thoughtful speculation as well as on research findings. We cannot assert that interstellar contact is totally devoid of risk. We can only offer the opinion that, in all probability, the benefits greatly outweigh the risks. How can we know which of the possible consequences of contact are most likely? Scientists and others apply probability when they consider the scientific dimensions of finding extraterrestrial intelligence, even when our knowledge of some factors is limited to one example. However, they gener- ally abandon the probabilistic approach when they consider the possible social, cultural, political, and security implications of contact. We get opin- ions rather than analyses. Most SETI scientists expect upbeat results. The NASA workshop report of 1977 stated that “the receipt and translation of a radio message from the depths of space seems to pose few dangers to mankind; instead, it holds promise of philosophical and perhaps practical benefits for all of human- ity.” A New York Times editorialist argued that, on balance, the chances of gain from alien intelligence greatly exceed the chances of harm. There is no reason to assume that alien intelligence among the stars must be 325 Analyses of the Direct Contact Scenario A Calculation of Risks and Benefits —Project Cyclops, 1972!