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307 sightedness and unsustainable appetites, traits that are completely consis- tent with the behavior of the only sapient species we know—ourselves.'” Paralyzed by Guilt? H.G. Wells’novel The War of the Worlds included an odd defense of Martian invaders. Before we judge of them too harshly, Wells wrote, we must remember what ruthless and utter destruction our own species has wrought, not only upon animals, but also on its own “inferior races.” He cited the extinction of Tasmanians in a war of extermination waged by European immigrants. “Are we such apostles of mercy,” he asked, “as to complain if the Martians warred in the same spirit?” Wells may have intended his novel to be a condemnation of European imperialism, as some suggest.'** Nonetheless, it may be unwise to let our reactions to contact be conditioned by guilt about our past. Extrapolating from trends he perceived in recent human history toward democracy, the end of war, and the evolution of supranational systems that impose order on individual nation-states, Harrison concluded that our newfound neighbors will be peaceful. Advanced extraterrestrials will be too rich to be greedy; the vastness of space makes motivations like power and greed meaningless. Very old societies are likely to be democratic as well. “Belligerent, self-serving states” do not last as long as states that do not initiate war but do enter into defensive alliances, argued Harrison. Some computer models show that societies that refrain from exploiting each other and rush to one another’s defense are likely to outlast others; “berserk” or belligerent societies are likely to collapse. These findings, Harrison announced, “free us from the idiosyncracies of world history.”!? Others challenge such conclusions. Western culture has promoted certain illusions about human nature, observed New York Times columnist William Pfaff, a naive version of the faith in inevitable human progress that arose during the French Enlightenment. This package of beliefs assumes that everyone is headed not only toward liberal democracy but also toward secularism or religious indifference. Western political and economic values are assumed to be universal, valid for all societies now and in the future; hence the unity of Humankind is only a matter of time. People in the West want to continue believing in these illusions, despite all that history has done to disprove them.'° Even if the positive trends were confirmed in the human case, they might not apply to all technological civilizations. We cannot assume that extrater- restrial intelligent beings would follow our political trajectory, leading to rivalry between national states armed with weapons of mass destruction. There could be alternate histories in which a planetary government was Technologically Advanced Means Benign