Page Content (OCR)
293 Regis challenged this argument as well. If we examine the claim that failure to find aliens would have a sobering influence on quarreling nation states, we would have to wonder why the pre-Copernican conception of man’s specialness failed to have this effect in the past. Direct contact might have a greater unifying impact, stimulated by fear. If there were a perception of potential threat, nations might be motivated to work together for the common defense. Optimists tend to see the cultural impact of contact as gradual, because information interpreted and filtered through an elite will be released slowly. If the other civilization were hundreds or thousands of light-years away, there would be no hope of a quick exchange; getting a reply to our own message might take centuries. We could propose other scenarios. What if the signal is strong and infor- mation-rich, and millions of humans have direct access to it through mul- tiple receivers? If the message were relatively easy to decode and interpret, the impact on us could be deep and wide. What if the signal comes from relatively nearby, say less than 20 light- years? Exchanges of messages could take place within a human lifetime, accelerating the impact. A communicating probe in our solar system could allow exchanges within hours. An information-drenched artifact could have similar effects—if its contents were released to the public. Even in the case of remote contact, information-rich messages could cause a discontinuity. We might be flooded with new ideas and new ways of doing things; that influx could drive social change. As MacGowan and Ordway put it, new social science and operational science information would accelerate social evolution.” By implication, they would be Anata destabilizing. Alien technologies and ideas about the forms and purposes of economic organization could suggest new opportunities for innovation and growth, or less damaging prosperity. They also could disrupt our economies by undermining independent initiative and the spirit of invention, forcing massive readjustment and unemployment, and threatening existing eco- nomic institutions. Rubin foresaw that shortcuts to advanced technology might carry such unintended negative consequences as displaced workers, overpopulation, psychological stress, and social unrest if people came to believe that their governments were powerless or irrelevant.” Major transformations in the nature of work tend to bring wrenching social changes, warned economist Alan Blinder. We would need time to adjust to alien ways of doing things; the evolution of laws, customs, and attitudes that support rather than clash with new technology can take decades.” Contact Will Bring Greater Stability Contact Will Bring Greater Stability