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209 our capability and at relatively modest cost that holds a much promise for the future of humanity. Contact pessimists, arguing from what they believe is a hard-nosed, “realist” perspective based on knowledge of our own history, say that human experience does not support the best-case scenarios of contact. They argue that there could be negative consequences ranging from philo- sophical dislocation to the extermination of Homo sapiens. Arthur C. Clarke thought that contact with extraterrestrial civilizations might be the most devastating event in our history. Stephen Jay Gould, focusing on our intellectual lives, predicted that a successful result from the search would be cataclysmic. Biologist George Wald declared that he could conceive of no nightmare as terrifying as establishing communication with a superior technology in outer space. Even the generally optimistic Albert Harrison thought that, although intelligent aliens could help us to solve our problems and usher in a new Golden Age, the introduction of their ideas into our society could backfire and create a nightmare without end.* Prudence suggests that we be wary of extreme conclusions. The conse- quences of contact may lie somewhere between the extremes of optimism and pessimism. Instead of being entirely good or entirely bad, the outcome could be a mixture of positive and negative effects. The consequences of contact will be influenced by the interaction of many factors. Above all, they will depend on the circumstances in which contact takes place. Intelligent civilizations will limit their contacts to intellectual ones. —Frank Drake, 1981° In nearly all speculations about contact, the speculator assumes a sce- nario. The most common since 1960 is a “Standard Model” developed primarily by astronomers. That model foresees a slow exchange of radio messages between civilizations that will never come into direct contact. The debate about consequences has been dominated by those favoring this scenario, who also tend to be the most optimistic about the outcome. In the classic radio astronomy paradigm, scientists detect a faint signal coming from hundreds or thousands of light-years away. A more advanced civilization reveals its wisdom to us. The impact of contact is gradual; dis- tance gives us time for study, debate, and rational decision-making. The remoteness of the aliens implies that they will be no threat to us, and that the only major outcome of our encounter with extraterrestrials will be an exchange of information. Scenarios of Contact: Remote Detection Scenarios of Contact: Remote Detection