Contact With Alien Civilizations - Michael A.G.

Page 20 of 472

Page 20 of 472
Contact With Alien Civilizations - Michael A.G.

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Introduction This book looks at the long debate from both sides. Under probabilities, we look at both the positive and negative arguments for the existence of extraterrestrial intelligence. Under consequences, we look at both the opti- mistic and pessimistic predictions of what contact might bring. The dream of cosmic concord has been tempered; contact may not lead to a Wood- stock of the skies. It may not imply Armageddon either. We begin with a condensed history of speculations about contact with extraterrestrial intelligence up to 1959, with an emphasis on foreseen con- sequences. After brief descriptions of the scientific searches for extrater- restrial life and alien signals, we consider arguments about the probability of finding other technological societies. Most of the multiple factors that have been proposed implicitly limit the probability of contact, although to what degree is highly subjective. We then take a close look at a second major model of contact—one that has very different implications from detecting a faint radio transmission. This paradigm could significantly increase the probability of encountering extraterrestrials. That leads us to review what some see as the paradoxical implications of results so far. A review of possible explanations suggests that there may be no paradox. In the second half of the book, we review the main predictions that have been offered about the consequences of contact. We critically examine underlying assumptions and consider what has been missing from this debate. The book ends with some conclusions about the search and its conse- quences. We consider paradigm shifts that appear to be under way and suggest some directions for Humankind’s future role. An annex describes steps that have been taken or proposed to prepare for contact. The greatest variety of speculations about the consequences of contact is to be found in science fiction. Although scientists searching for signals from many light years away have not given much weight to this literature, it must be taken into account, particularly when we consider the possibility of a more direct encounter. The imaginative output of science fiction writers on this subject deserves a book of its own. This one includes only samples of the most relevant faa. ideas. The Book An Apology