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99 matter ever seen on Earth, reproducing, on a small scale, the conditions that existed in the early universe.”* Three potential disaster scenarios worried the public. Experiments could produce black holes that might consume the Earth. A vacuum instability could expand catastrophically in all directions at the speed of light. Strange- lets (a type of strange matter) could grow to incorporate ordinary matter, perhaps transforming the entire Earth into its form. Physicists dismissed the first two scenarios. As for strangelets, analyses indicated that they were unlikely to be a danger, but scientists could not declare absolutely that there would be no problem.” Mind-Stretcher. In his novel Earth, science fiction author David Brin described how a black hole created in a laboratory falls to the center of our planet, eating the Earth from inside. Producing black holes is not fantasy. Scientists are actively planning to create miniature black holes in their laboratories, although they assure us that such small versions would pose no threat to our planet.” Rees warned that caution should surely be urged (if not enforced) on experiments that create energy concentrations that may never have occurred naturally. The assessments of risk by those supporting such experiments are subjective; the theoretical arguments depend on probabilities rather than certainties.” The most dangerous threat to the survival of humankind, warned physi- cist Peter Ulmschneider, is the likelihood of uncontrollable inventions. He was particularly worried about deliberate man-made destruction. It is not only war; it is the mounting concentration of power in the hands of a few individuals. If our irresponsible side cannot be controlled, mankind is doomed. Sooner or later, a powerful individual or movement will succeed in putting an end to it—a fate that might have befallen extraterrestrial intelligent societies that existed before us.”* The Dalai Lama issued a very similar warning. It is no longer adequate, he counseled, to say that the choice of what to do with this knowledge should be left in the hands of individuals. We need secular ethics shared by all faiths—compassion, tolerance, consideration of others, and the responsible use of knowledge and power.” Will the threats to ourselves that we create also appear in other civiliza- tions? Or are we extrapolating human futures to the whole universe, again making Man the measure of all things? We have only one data point on the lifetimes of technological civilizations; ours has existed for a few centuries. Beyond that, estimates of such life- times depend on whether one is optimistic or pessimistic.*” Hints of Optimism Hints of Optimism