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xii Contents There Will Be Lighthouses in the Cosmic Night .............. SETI Scientists Will Make the Discovery .................... They Have Prepared for Contact ..................00.0200005 ASSUMPTIONS: AFTER CONTACT .........0... 00 ce eens The Message Will Be Comprehensible ....................-. They Will Speak Science ............ 0000.00 cee eee eee eee Parallelism and Synchrony ............. 00.0000 eee eee eee They Will Be Generous in Sharing Information .............. Everything Will Be Made Public ........................04. Their Knowledge Will Solve Our Problems .................. We Will Be Willing to Adopt Their Ideas ................... Contact Will Unify Humankind ......................20000. Contact Will Bring Greater Stability .....................0.. Their Utopia Will Be Good for Us ...............0.0.200005 They Will Be Morally Superior ...................0..000005 They Will Be Altruistic 1.0.0.0... 0.0002. c cee eee eee They Speak as One ...... 0... 0. eens They Mean What They Say ...............00. 0000 e eee eee They Will Treat Us Fairly .............. 0000. c cee eee eee Technologically Advanced Means Benign ................... War Will Be Obsolete 2.2.0.0... eens Distance Protects Us ..... 0... ccc een ees Expansion Will Be Relentless .................0..00.0000005 Territory Is the Issue «1... eee eee The Galactic Club Exists ......... 6.0.0 cece cece cece eee There Won’t Be Any Interstellar Politics .................... Interstellar Empires Do Not Exist ...................00.02005 WHAT IS MISSING ........ 0.00.00 e eee Analyses of the Direct Contact Scenario A Calculation of Risks and Benefits ..................20000. Systematic Mirror Images .............. 0.00.0 e cee eee eee eee The Social Science Dimension .................. 000 e eee eee Forums for Discussion ............. 000 c cece eee eee eee eee 274 277 278 279 279 282 288 291 292 292 293 295 297 299 301 302 302 304 308 311 312 317 322 322 324 326 327 330 331 331 333 333 335, THE DRAKE EQUATION, TAKE FOUR ..................-