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91 We are very far from knowing general laws governing the development of civilizations—the fundamental problem of what Soviet scientists called “exosociology.” We must assign any particular model of an advanced society a very low probability of being a typical end result.’ Historians have presented us with many speculative alternative histories of human affairs, in which events went a different way.'° Those speculations stimulate our thinking, but they are not predictions on which we can rely. Cultures Civilization is not synonymous with culture, another vague word used in many different ways. Prehistoric, precivilization societies all had cultures. If we define culture as socially transmitted behavioral patterns, we must recognize that it has not been limited to humans. Researchers have found that chimpanzees can learn tool use by observation; that use varies among geographically separated groups of chimps, implying dif- ferent cultures. Other investigators have discovered similar variations among geographically separated orangutans. Great ape cultures may have existed for 14 million years or more, predating the arrival of hominids.'' Although long established, those cultures lack the human ability to shape the material world on a large scale. The adaptive value of intelligence and manipulative ability is so great—at least until technical civilizations are developed—that if it is genetically feasible, natural selection seems likely to bring it forth. —losif Shklovskii and Carl Sagan, 1966” The signs of alien minds that we are best able to detect are not those of civilization, but of only one of its possible attributes: technology. How likely are we to find it? Many of those who support the search for extraterrestrial societies have assumed that the development of technology by intelligent life-forms is nearly inevitable. When beings having sufficiently high intelligence evolve, argued MacGowan and Ordway, they will sooner or later develop a tech- nological understanding. Others have seen a reproductive advantage in the ability to store knowledge and build technology.’ A NASA workshop report made a forceful declaration: Technology and Science Technology and Science