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90 language, which provided the novel inheritance system that allowed cumu- lative cultural and technological evolution.* Simple technologies were followed by agriculture, urbanization, and occupational specialization. Our recorded history has seen the development of industry, science, more complex technologies, greater command of energy, and the emergence of larger political units. Would all these steps be required for intelligent beings living in very different environments? Would they occur in the same order? We don’t know; once again, we are extrapolating from our own example. We probably cannot imagine all the possible routes to civilized societies. Some argue that convergences are a fact in the emergence of cultures and civilizations as well as in biology. Toynbee, among other his- torians, saw recurrent patterns in the rise and fall of many human civilizations.* Others warn us against assuming that there are universally valid “laws of history.” Those who proclaim that ancient cultures must have developed in a particular way, in obedience to iron laws of human development, often insist that their own country should pursue an untrammeled course free of the dictates of overweening neighbors.” Anthropologist Ben Finney hoped that learning about extraterrestrial societies might someday enable a “science of civilizations.” In the mean- time, we should be cautious about extending our concepts of how sociologi- cal and economic development, science and technology, or the evolution of language, art, and religion evolved on Earth to other civilizations; they may follow different evolutionary courses.° Again, we suffer from the fact that we are extrapolating from a single example. Our thinking about alien civilizations is constrained by what happened in our own history, or by currently fashionable interpretations of those events. Past examples of civilizations were confined to specific areas of the Earth’s surface and may not be good analogs to the global civilization we know today. It is important to distinguish between the rise and fall of par- ticular civilizations and the fate of civilized humans as a whole. Civiliza- tions may come and go, noted Robert Wright, but civilization flourishes, growing in scope and complexity.’ “Progress,” as that concept developed in the Western historical tradition, may not be inevitable. Civilizations can remain at certain levels of develop- ment or in given niches for millennia, if they are not disturbed by outside forces.* Civilizations have histories, with many branching points; they are the products of particular, contingent events. Intelligent, civilized beings can make choices that alter their courses. Extraterrestrial civilizations may be as young as ours, or far older; simpler than ours, or far more complex; more technological, or less. Probabilities: Civilization, Technology, and Science